Russian Election Influence Explained using the Current Trump/Russia Allegations
The newest Trump allegations are a bombshell on the political world. These as-yet unverified claims re-enforce the narrative that Trump has close ties to Putin and Russia.
Lets pretend the 2016 election was held again tomorrow. How many people would have to believe this story to get Hillary elected in an election redo?
Lets examine 3 states. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Hillary wins these three states in our new election, she becomes President. Lets start with the biggest Trump victory: Pennsylvania.
Lets assume all the people who voted for Trump one will vote for Trump again. Same for Hillary. Trump carried PA by 44,292 votes. How can Hillary make up those votes in our new election?
Well, 218,228 people voted for a candidate other than Trump or Hillary. Lets assume those 218,228 voters would break similar to the Republican/Democrat breakdown in PA. That means 48.58% of would probably vote Trump and would not be moved. 106,011 votes. And 104,430 would likely vote Hillary. Hillary now needs 45,873 of (44,292+1,581) votes to win PA.
To say that another way, Hillary needs 44% of the likely Democratic leaners in PA who voted 3rd party to believe the Trump allegations and are the biggest issue, and change their vote toHillary.
In WI, its even closer. Only 29% of the likely Democratic leaners who voted 3rd party in WI would have to change their votes to Hillary.
In Michigan, only 9.7% of the likely Democratic supporters would have to change their 3rd party votes to Hillary.
So as your scrolling your social media, do you think 40% of Democrats might believe this story?
Because that is how Russia influenced OUR election.
They created a fake news story about Hillary “rigging” the DNC primary. These “hacked” emails reinforced suspicions about her private email servers and fed into the “Crooked Hillary” narrative.
In MI, PA, and WI, this influenced enough people to think, “Their both crooks” and vote 3rd party (Nationally, 3rd party voting increased by over 250%).
Also, this means that we will never be able to prove conclusively that Russian meddling caused any direct changes to people’s votes. The question you have to ask yourself is this:
- Do you think .22% of the voters in MI believe Hillary is “just as bad” as Trump, and voted 3rd party? They may have been influenced by Russian activities.
Of the likely Democratic leaning 114,943 who DID vote 3rd party in MI, do you think 9.7% believe the Trump story?
- Do you think .72% of the voters in PA believe Hillary is “just as bad” as Trump, and voted 3rd party? They may have been influenced by Russian activities.
Of the likely Democratic leaning 104,430 who DID vote 3rd party in PA, do you think 44.9% believe the Trump story?
- Do you think .77% of the voters in WI believe Hillary is “just as bad” as Trump, and voted 3rd party? They may have been influenced by Russian activities.
- Of the likely Democratic leaning 82,307 who DID vote 3rd party in WI, do you think 29.2% believe the Trump story?
Here I show my work.