The EV revolution can’t come soon enough…but not as soon as you think
Electric Vehicles (EVs) are not as new as you think, in fact the first EVs were made in the 1800’s!
“In the United States by the turn of the century, 40 percent of automobiles were powered by steam, 38 percent by electricity, and 22 percent by gasoline. A total of 33,842 electric cars were registered in the United States, and America became the country where electric cars had gained the most acceptance.” — Wikipedia (History of the EV)
Ferdinand Porsche also made the world’s first EV-Hybrid the “Lohner-Porsche Mixte” in 1902. More details for the gearheads here.
So, if EVs were so popular at the start of the 20th century, what led to their decline and the rise of gasoline powered cars and the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). It was a combination of 3 factors that led to the decline of EVs:
- We struck oil! Worldwide discoveries of oil, lead to cheap gasoline.
- Henry Ford initiated production of the gas powered Model-T making ICE powered cars affordable to the masses.
- Better road infrastructure lead to people wanting to travel longer distances, so range of EVs became an issue.
Oh, and btw, the first manned vehicle to drive on the moon was an EV!
It took about 100 years for the tide to turn back in favor of EVs. The Tesla Roadster produced in 2008 was the first highway legal production car to use Lithium Ion batteries with a range of 200 miles!
“All the geniuses here at General Motors kept saying lithium-ion technology is 10 years away, and Toyota agreed with us — and boom, along comes Tesla. So I said, ‘How come some tiny little California startup, run by guys who know nothing about the car business, can do this, and we can’t?’ That was the crowbar that helped break up the log jam.” — GM vice-chairman Bob Lutz, The New Yorker, August 2009
The release of the Model S in 2012 led the mainstream manufacturers to open their eyes to the EV revolution and commit to developing their own cars. Today, most major automakers have announced that a majority of their cars will be EV ready in the next couple of years.
If EVs work for our purposes, and we know how to produce them, then why will it take so long for a majority of the cars to be EVs?!
- Manufacturing cars takes time and costs a lot of money. Billions need to be invested into new designs, manufacturing facilities & testing.
- Buying a new car is a rare event, the average age of cars in the US is ~11.6 years.
- Electricity & charging infrastructure is needed. Estimates show that each EV’s electricity consumption is equivalent to 1/2 a US household. Utilities need to be able to handle the new load & companies like ChargePoint & Tesla need to build out their charging networks.
Here are some back of the envelope calculations to put this in context
Total #cars in the US ~263 million
Total #cars sold in the US in 2017 ~17.5 million (highest ever!)
#years to swap out all US cars @ 2017 rate ~15 years
#cars Tesla has sold ~250k
#2018 production goal for Tesla Model 3 ~ 240k/year
These numbers show that it will take decades for us to have a sizable portion of EV’s in our fleets.
In the meantime in order to accelerate EV adoption governments all around the world should incentivize consumers to buy EVs and treat the subsidies as a public health expense. Every clean car on the road helps in our fight against pollution. This is especially important in big developing countries like India & China — just imagine how quickly the pollution in New Delhi or Beijing would decrease with EVs.
As for you, please consider an EV for your next car purchase — at least test drive one, I promise you will enjoy the instant torque!
Recommended reading:
- China’s 10% tax rebate on EV’s for the next 3 years — Steve Dent @ engadget
- The History of the Electric Car — Rebecca Matukla @ the US Dept of Energy
- The electric car charging infrastructure needed to support 7 Million EV’s — Fred Lambert @ electrek.co
For those of you looking to invest in this trend check out the ETF GRID.
Originally published at www.shivala.in on February 15, 2018.
