COVID-19: Quarantine Forms a Political System
How Do Liberal, Democratic and less Democratic Countries Respond to COVID-19?
I know, I know, dear reader, that you are very close to vomit when you see one more article published on COVID-19. I promise here you won’t find jokes on the toilet paper or tips on “How to survive the quarantine and don’t call your exes”, but only ̶p̶o̶l̶i̶t̶i̶c̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶i̶n̶c̶o̶r̶r̶e̶c̶t̶ ̶j̶o̶k̶e̶s̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶c̶o̶u̶n̶t̶r̶i̶e̶s̶ the practical insight on how the COVID-19 changes inner political environment or, perhaps, mirrors it.
Blonde Writes about Politics?
Oh, yes. Never lose a chance to use the moment of glory. So, here you are, my dear reader, find my dossier attached:
- Born Russian in 1994, could have a Soviet passport but decided to be delivered a few years later
- A daughter of an oil magnate, tamer of furious Siberian bears but denied the wealth of my father and decided to leave on my own in poverty
- I love jokes about Russian vodka that runs from the sink one-day a year and foreigners believe so.
- Earn my Ph.D. in Public Administration, expected by 2022, aged 28. Currently, live in Hungary
- Traveled 36 countries if it makes sense.
One of the facts is fake if you found one — let me know, the shot of vodka is on me. And yes, I feel that I’m smarter in the winter since my blonde becomes a dark one.
All Сards on the Table or All Maps on the Wall?
I hope that will be forgiven for snipping this map from the New York Times but anyway if you think I’m going to tell you that Corona Virus is bad and you better #staythefuckhome and do self-quarantine you should read that stuff that they wrote — that’s going to be more helpful. Here I’m going to offer you different opinions and practices on quarantine made by different governments and tell you how quarantine measures form a political system or, perhaps, mirror it at some point.
So, here we go the basic facts collected from different sources (sorry, it’s not an academic paper, so no sources mentioned, you just have to believe me).
Versions
The official version says that someone ate a bat in China and this is how it’s all started, the conspiracy theory says that COVID-19 is the biological weapon made by China or the USA in order to change economics, the religious version says that it was given as a punishment to people for all that bad-mouthing made and other sins, so as the result ‘Unthaiful’ stay with their beloved family, ‘Lonely’ ones stay alone, the world cares about solitude and solicitude and you can actually add your own version here.
Focus Group in Danger
Let’s talk about the risk group in this case. Probably many of you figured out that ‘0–25' group is more or less risk-free (and I mean death-free too or very low risk), ‘25–35’ can have latent symptoms but still working out with no danger applied, ‘35+’ bad news for you, it’s getting closer and it’s not funny at all, ‘45+’ you should be self-quarantining according to my humble opinion as well as people with weak immune systems. At this moment the probability of getting infected is maximized.
Of course, I know that you know everything without a reminder that coronavirus poses a direct danger to the older generation, and all existing quarantines, ranging from ‘soft-quarantine’ (including ‘self-isolation’ #stayhome) to hard-quarantine (forced quarantine by a government with penalty involved) primarily aimed at
- Protect people at risk
- Buy a little time in the hope of finding a vaccine and not overload the health system, providing enough places and equipment in hospitals
- To avoid crowding in public places and the spread of panic
- Stop the spread of the virus on the street (although no one has yet proven how much the virus can live on surfaces and in which cases it can be transmitted from person to person)
- Perhaps, solidarity between young and old generations.
One sad thing you need to know for sure, our world will never be the same, despite all over versions chosen and supported by you, it needs to be accepted that sooner or later not each and everyone but the greater number of people will be contaminated by COVID-19, it’s just the matter of time and the question of luck of cure and circumstances. The other side of the coin is the economic impact and aftermath and this is where we start officially.
Money Masters the Game or Vice Versa?
Yes, that’s not an overlap that this heading goes right after ‘Focus Group in Danger’. The Shakespearean question of our time is completely different. Does money master the game or vice versa? The risk groups on the scale 2020 are small and medium-sized businesses in one corner of the ring, state support in the other corner, the knocked-down audience is visitors and consumers in-home quarantine and in self-isolation, at stake is the indulgence of unpreparedness of states and zero dollars zero cents from viewers. How about this situation?
Can’t avoid but mention the famous joke: “Soon coronavirus will be gone and you won’t even remember about it but laugh, not all of you, of course”.
First and foremost, it refers to small and medium-sized businesses that haven’t or aren’t going to receive financial state support. Many companies will just stop to exist after all. Can you imagine that it can be your favorite restaurant, cafe, gym or even airline(not talking about people)?
Here is the situation. Whatever this pandemic is… an accident, biological weapon or divine punishment, the political structure requires a response since people (citizens, tax-payers or whatever pragmatic term you want to use) are affected. The government is a legally responsible entity that aims at saving people’s lives, small and medium-sized businesses stuck in the middle since it serves secondary but not primary people’s needs. It suffers and as consequences of the lack of training of business owners and a state preparation for this pandemic. Government’s response: ‘soft’ or ‘hard’ quarantine in accordance with a political system or against it?
Supermen in Pajamas: How about Self-Isolation?
The real heroes of our time, who are they? People who decided to isolate themselves in connection with the declared pandemic and the awareness of their potential danger to age and risk groups, or a government, which in one way or another introduces measures to restrict people’s movement on the streets and their mobile activity?
There are two questions on the agenda, one ethical-philosophical, the other philosophical-political.
The first one is referred exclusively to self-ethics and decision for self-isolation with no governmental strings attached (the key distinguishing feature is the absence of external authority to establish rules enforcing cooperative behavior) but social behavior is tested with non-cooperative game theory (tap for more info) applied when players (people) formally can’t form alliances and all agreements have to be self-enforced through credible threads, i.e. self-isolation or free movement through the risk of coronavirus carrier, spread, and contamination.
Let’s try to predict the possible strategies, payoffs and the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only their own strategy.
In coronavirus situation, according to my opinion, the first driven force to stay at home is solely egocentric driven force in order do not catch the virus, the second submission, perhaps, do not pass it to a risk group. The payoff is not contagiousness and granted unlimited freedom “get-your-life-back-granted-human being” at the end (or new beginning).
The equilibrium strategy can be changed any time depends on a focus group and potential external risk taken. In this situation, the coronavirus contamination is the worse scenario if the one and only driven force is a solely egocentric, at the second one is ethics applied.
Democratic societies more or less are committed to the values of tolerance, cooperation, and compromise, where people and institutions have the desire, opportunity, and confidence to participate together that means that citizens of a democratic country maintain a high level of cooperation without unnecessary authoritarian pressure from the outside, because they have a high level of morality and etiquette in achieving a common goal — to fight the virus or, perhaps, beat the virus through getting it? It depends on how the common goal is defined. But potentially people on self-quarantine could form a strong democratic state. What can be the worse scenario though?
How Do Countries Fight Coronavirus?
As it was mentioned earlier there is the thread and possibility that sooner or later most of us might be affected by COVID-19 and there won’t be a vaccine or remedy found against in the near future (it takes from 6 months and up only to develop a vaccine).
Considering this happen-to-be outbreak with a lived-happily-ever-after ending, demographics and patterns of social interactions differ from country to country depends on the prediction model and some other factors as well.
This is not the first and not the last pandemic, so just keep calm and try to enjoy life. Do you remember about the Spanish pandemic flu of 1918 that counted as one of the deadliest in modern history? It killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims. The same scenario — highly contagious virus with no vaccine or drug found (that time).
Here might be a joke that that time nobody ate the fat bat in the communist country so the Spanish flu is not even a virus since it doesn’t involve the human’s stupidity mixed with nationalism at the political background. Sadly, it also won’t be mentioned that the same communist party won pandemic first and received the cheap market shares as the haul. I told you before n̶o̶ p̶o̶l̶i̶t̶i̶c̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶i̶n̶c̶o̶r̶r̶e̶c̶t̶ ̶j̶o̶k̶e̶s̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶c̶o̶u̶n̶t̶r̶i̶e̶s̶. Nevertheless, it seems like the world hasn’t even learned since the 20th century how to handle the epidemic virus. Are you sure we are heading to the future like that or does Darwin’s natural selection theory really work? I think that ministers of the church have a special holistic approach for coronavirus at offering buying an indulgence. I could put more intolerant jokes but I’m really afraid to offend my dearest readers that have been already scared to the death by fake news and media outlets. Hey there, keep your head high and wash your hands and eyes after reading bad news, it might cause you the real trouble!
Back to the point, a few strategies and approaches can be found as a response to the current situation:
A) ‘Soft’ Quarantine and minor measures that include curfew hours, limitations in humans mobility and gathering, introducing social distance, in some cases the financial penalty for rules abandonment (mostly as a backup plan). Sometimes also including mandatory 14-day quarantine measures for new arrivals from infected countries.
B) ‘Hard’ Quarantine that also known as a total lockdown that imposes restrictions on leaving home with the exception of certain conditions, including replenishment of the food supply, medical needs, walking out domestic animals or a forced trip to work. It’s characterized by the penalty from administrative punishment to the criminal offense.
C) ‘Medium’ or something in between ‘Soft’ and ‘Hard’ quarantine that includes substantial reasons for going out allowance. Mostly, adopted by the countries that haven’t formed the final position and measures towards the pandemic, trying to play hard at both corners at providing the safety of people and economics, including the small and medium businesses.
Also suitable for those countries that cannot legally announce the quarantine due to the expected financial payouts expected from a government to citizens.
D) Ultra ‘hard’ quarantine that refers to ‘Hard’ one but includes the ultra autocratic measures till personal phones’ spying and checking your bank account in order to track the movement, characterized by the extreme governmental mistrust and intrusion.
What does affect the concrete adoption of measures and the introduction of quarantine?
First and foremost, population density, risk group demographics, the country’s economic situation and the readiness of Health Ministry and Institutions, including medical workers (if there are enough of them), hospitals’ capacity and their technical equipment, including respiratory devices. Next on the list, the practices of other states, the global situation in the world, as well as the political regime and relations between a state government and citizens.
What else matters? A new keyword is the basic reproductive number (R₀) — this is the average number of people in a susceptible population, i.e. the potential number of newly infected people from a contaminated zero patient that can happen through\and depends on a number of social contacts and interactions. Of course, it also depends on the virus itself, for example, how stable it is in the external environment, how easily it penetrates into cells, how long the flu can be last, and on many other features that are being actively studied.
So, among countries, in fact, two FUNDAMENTAL approaches can be found a policy of containment (B,D) and mitigation (A,C).
Both strategies require the introduction of fairly costly and severe deterrents. At the same time, the containment strategy emphasizes the rapid and rigid suppression of the virus spread to the stage where the rate of occurrence of new cases becomes low. It allows most effectively to suppress the growth of infection in the first stage and, thus, gain time. However, it is impossible to hold on to the most severe measures for a long time, and in the conditions of a low number of contaminated and therefore stable people, this approach can simply lead to a shift of a new outbreak into the future, but not greatly reduce its absolute scale. And, of course, such a strategy is associated with maximum economic damage (at least in the first stage).
The mitigation strategy focuses on minimizing economic damage while controlling the growth rate of the pandemic, new virus-affected people still can appear, but in such a way that their number is not too sharp and broad to prevent overloading the medical infrastructure. At the same time, the number of people who have recovered quickly increases, which means that the potential for a second outbreak decreases. However, this inevitably increases the number of irreversible consequences — deaths.
Resistance to the virus can be obtained in three ways.
Firstly, it can be just a genetic feature of some people.
Secondly, it can be acquired during vaccination.
Finally, resistance can be acquired naturally, that is, simply get the COVID-19.Liberal Steak or Autocracy Bread: What Will the Coronavirus like less?
This article will either please you or cause a sign of nausea from the abundance of that inedible information that you can find for breakfast, lunch and dinner on the Internet. I hope it has been tasty so far and you will love the main course as well. Here is the menu from the countries that I can offer.
Liberal Lunch Box No 1. If you have an allergy or signs of coronavirus, please consult with your doctor.
It consists of Nordic European cuisine but this time only the UK and Sweden are serving us with a steak of liberty and the mitigation strategy. Ah, sorry representatives of the United Kingdom, led by Boris Johnson and Prince Charles are absent today, they are coronaviruses contaminated and must be sleeping peacefully in their beds.
The approach of the UK till a certain moment was the most liberal one since it hasn’t been limiting people’s freedom and only advising a risk group to isolate themselves at home in their own best interest. The country lived its own life at normal pace, neither affecting businesses nor citizens’ schedules and plans. What measures were enforced at the first stage? Mass events were canceled and the recommended 14-day quarantine for new arrivals from infected countries was introduced that helped to minimize R₀.
The strategy was simple — to let people get this virus and recover from it since it’s a natural process to fight epidemics like this. The UK health system was generally ready to accept the maximum infected people. The strategy cracked when the government and administrative authorities faced public pressure. Many people call this method of combating the virus inhumane. This is the exact case when liberal government actions with their trust in citizens are accused of non-fulfillment of obligation in order to protect the nation. As a result, we can see the next advice from the UK government:
Stay at home
Only go outside for food, health reasons or work (but only if you cannot work from home)
If you go out, stay 2 metres (6ft) away from other people at all times
Wash your hands as soon as you get home
Do not meet others, even friends or family.
You can spread the virus even if you don’t have symptoms.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/weights-measures-and-packaging-the-law
So, here is the Swedish meatballs for you and I hope you are not a vegetarian, otherwise, surströmming (tap the word to see what is it) could be a replacement dish. Although, if the environmental activist Greta Thunberg likes it, you will love it too. I hope. By the way, bad news Greta revealed on her Instagram that she has had coronavirus symptoms and is self-isolating. Be like Greta because the Swedish government ain't no pressing.
“Liberalism” — ten magic letters that proclaim the rights and freedom of each and every person and equality before the law. This is Sweden, one of the most liberal and shocking countries of these days because it doesn’t enforce strict quarantine measures but some minor ones, which is no mass gathering and social distance that has been already a cultural norm before.
“No one is alone in this crisis, but each person has a heavy responsibility” Prime Minister of Sweden Stefan Löfven
The reliable approach of Sweden is based on almost the same shared belief with the UK that constitutes the general knowledge and info about COVID-19 that is less severe than Spanish flu, the threshold for “herd immunity” is about 60%. So that gives hope that countries with more intensive mitigation or fewer suppression strategies might have a higher chance to fight the virus faster with a lower risk for social and economic negative consequences in the long term. The question is what to do with the other 40% in the risk? Let them die freely as it’s considered to be the most liberal approach?
Autocratic Lunch Box No 2.
In this set, you can choose something exotic, for example, a fat bat, dog or alive octopus, but if you wanted something more mediocre, then we can offer Russian borsch or hummus with falafel. In the first case, a roll of toilet paper comes as a gift, an annual set for courage.
The list of countries is extensive but limited. Here is the last successful communists on Earth —the People’s Republic of China. Its neighbors presidential representative democratic republic South Korea. The biggest country in the world with a democratic, federative, law-based state with a republican form of government Russia and its brother in endless love parliamentary democratic Israel. Whatever these long democratic titles are, let’s hope, they are going to last longer than their lengths.
China became the first country with coronavirus outbreak and its spread, but it was also one of the very first countries that were able to overcome the epidemics, if the statistics are really reliable and not forged.
China gives a non-democratic lesson in coronavirus fight. The introduction of a strict quarantine regime in Wuhan was a belated, but effective solution. After its introduction on January 23, the whole city of Wuhan was closed, all transport connections with other cities were discontinued, residents of the city were not allowed to leave the city, later on, quarantine was introduced in all cities of Hubei Province. In case of non-compliance with quarantine measures, criminal liability is assumed in accordance withthe Criminal Code of the People’s Republic of China (Article 115), which provides the real prison sentences. Throughout the country, events dedicated to the celebration of the New Year according to the Chinese calendar were canceled, cinemas and tourist facilities were closed. On February 4 and 8, two infectious hospitals were built in Wuhan in a short time with a total capacity of 2.6 thousand beds. Compliance with quarantine is monitored through video sessions. Rebels can face up prison sentence or a financial fine. After all, the analysis showed that the spread of infection began to drop sharply.
This is the real containment strategy in its hardest form in use. And then the second wave of COVID-19 started and the story kept repeating itself, closed cities again and strict quarantine. The situation is reminiscent of a bonfire that has not been completely spent; as soon as the wind blows, it flares up again. The question is this strategy really effective? And how long do you have to wait for quarantine to end? The other side of the coin is a gross violation of human rights in China, although I am sure that there have been worse cases in this country, we just don’t know about, but there is no doubt that the political system of China fully reflects the quarantine measures taken. It seems that this lesson can’t be adopted by European countries since it’s tough enough for the democracy test.
However, the cases of Spain and Italy show the different practice but quarantine there was a necessary measure, given the vastness of the age group, the lack of regional immunity against viral diseases, the collapse of medical institutions, the lack of social distance (cultural aspect) and, as a result, the growth of the R₀ coefficient in a frantic geometric progression, which reveals several aspects:
a) inefficiency of health policy
b) lack of national awareness of the epidemic and neglect of norms and measures of self-isolation.
The coronavirus epidemic revealed democratic cracks and a political crisis both in these regions and in the European Union itself.
The Set of South Korea
Not so far away from China, there is a country called South Korea. Perhaps, you thought it can be North Korea where the numbers of COVID contracted people remind 1–0 game. It takes one gun and killed viruses, as far as you understood, that’s why coronavirus decided to be located in South Korea, where it has more chances to spread.
South Korea learned about the outbreak when a member of a religious sect went to Wuhan to be infected on purpose. The government tracked them down, the leaders of the sect apologized, and the doctors were able to contain and mitigate the spread of the virus.In South Korea, quarantine measures were taken against all arriving from mainland China as early as January 3. The first case was detected on January 20. The government played a bit with colors switching alert epidemic levels from ‘orange’ to ‘red’, which allowed the government to cancel the leave of military personnel and suspend the work of public schools. The next step was the introduction of mass tests and criminal prosecution of people with suspected coronavirus who don’t want to take medical tests, people with suspected coronavirus were denied entry into the country, in addition, the export of medical masks was prohibited.
The strategy of the government of South Korea is more reminiscent of the “Big Brother”, which combines the containment and mitigation strategies together, based on a public information campaign with an on-site examination of each suspected patient.
That time the arrived group from Wuhan was immediately isolated. Their relatives were found and forced to be medically examined.
All who had contacts with the infected were tracked by phone. Text messages were sent to citizens with the same phone code if new cases were discovered near their home or work.
South Korea conducted the most tests (about 10,000 per day), this is how it was able to identify infected people at an early stage. If a patient’s test is positive but he\she has no symptoms, then a person is simply sent for self-isolation due to the fact that the virus can be asymptomatic. Thus, despite the state financial cost of such measures, there is no significant economic impact and aftermath.
Could this still be considered authoritarian measures? Of course, since in some cases, the state infringes and breaches personal privacy that’s not possible in a liberal society that’s why such novel and effective measures can’t be practices in liberal countries, for example, the USA. Here is the ethics again what’s more important state’s principles or people’s saved lives and effective economics function?
Russia: The Holiday’s Package
It might seem to be a joke since each and every country handles the coronavirus outbreak differently. Russia hasn’t taken the threat seriously at first, the public reaction can be found in numerous memes and viral videos, where people express their deep disbelief in the existence of the coronavirus as such and see it as a conspiracy theory until the statistics of infected started to grow drastically. Russian tourists were seen as one of the last imposingly walking in empty European cities.
At the end of March, President Vladimir Putin made a statement about the non-working week lasting from March 30 to April 5 (or paid vacation) in an attempt to stop the spread of the virus. This statement was clearly made in order not to create public panic and buy some time for adopting further strategies, however, the national consciousness of the Russians really validated this announcement as vacation and went on a massive picnic on the weekend before the official start. It was then that the number of infected began to increase rapidly and spread to the regions from Moscow. At the end of March, they began to cancel international flights, close schools, kindergartens and educational institutions and transfer work to the remote mode from home.
Further on, this was followed by the extension of such a regime until the end of April with the introduction of criminal liability for the intentional and unintentional transmission of coronavirus. A ‘pass system’ was also introduced, which determined the conditions for going outside, which included visiting a doctor, work, a store and pharmacies to replenish food and medical drugs, as well as walking pets no further than 100 meters from the house. In addition, the owners of small and medium-sized businesses have many questions, including who will pay for such a generous public vacation? The question is still open and creates many other questions as well.
However, the situation doesn’t look so bad. Previously, in the Soviet Union, certain training aimed at preventing epidemics took place. Technically and strategically, Russia is ready to take effective measures, but given the population density of the metropolis and risk groups, it’s impossible to introduce measures in the footsteps of Seoul or adhere to soft quarantine in Russia, including given the citizens' irresponsibility towards the virus. Russia has enough bad examples, including the situation in New York.
I don’t want to protect such autocratic regimes, but I want to note that states that are not in critical condition of the coronavirus but still pushing towards the hard quarantines can economically afford that.
Israel’s Falafels in Making
I can tell you firsthand about Israeli measures. Fixing a feast in time of plague is not the best idea, but since I'm a Millennial, I’ll just leave you the following meme to discover a cause and effect relationship.
I was one of those risky Russian tourists who, despite the situation, nevertheless decided to carry out the planned trip to Israel. I was nervously tracking the breaking news on March 8 since more and more announcements about borders closure and ‘must-have’ quarantine had been arriving. I knew that I was taking a risk to be locked down in the country but I still went there.
On the evening of March 9, severe restrictions were imposed in connection with the global epidemic in Israel: all those who return from abroad (including tourists) were planned to be placed under a mandatory 14-day quarantine. Luckily, I had my flight in the morning because the law was enforced and validated the same day.
In Israel, I found completely the same care-free national consciousness as in Russia. Although the mass events more than 50 people were already banned, it was a week of the happiest holiday Purim in Israel and I’ve seen more than 50–150 mostly young people partying on the streets, completely disregarding social distance.
On March 10, there were only 50 people coronavirus infected in Israel but since the government announcement went enforce on the same day, the Israeli international airlines Arkia and Israir Airlines, providing international charter services, announced the cessation of flights abroad due to to the decision of Netanyahu. From March 12 flights between Europe and Israel were canceled by the Hungarian airline Wizz Air, in particular flights from Vienna, Budapest, London, and Warsaw. This is how my original flight back to Budapest was canceled the day after I arrived and I had to rebook a new ticket from Ryanair since Wizz Air didn’t leave me an option.
The situation was still pretty calm around, the week after the mitigation strategy was enforced in Israel that still allowed people to go to work and walk, keeping social distance and then it was the same scenario repeated by Russia, the strategy was changed to a strict quarantine or so-called lockdown as the number of infected climbed to approx. 1200 people with some death cases.
Israeli government went further in its investigation and required each corona positive-tested patient to make a report of places visited daily and hourly. If you want to entertain yourself or gather some materials for your novel, please visit the Ministry of Health (tap on here). Some other good news that the Israeli government tracks suspected patients via phones, which again reminds us of the “Big Brother” in the Middle East this time.
Does it call democrats? I don’t think so. Perhaps, Benjamin Netanyahu finally will get the missing votes in the election for saving Israel from the coronavirus, even despite such autocratic measures.
Conclusion for Desert
Democratic norms are being stress-tested all over the world, especially in the European Union, where many autocratic measures and decisions were very hard. The lack of solidarity among countries and mutual assistance on the part of the EU forced some countries in coronavirus crisis, in the case of Italy to ask assistance and humanitarian aid from more prepared countries such as Russia, for example.
Every government, whatever measures it may take, is worried about its citizens and, in fact, the electorate that votes in the elections if you know what I mean. I can’t suggest which strategy from all over-mentioned should be undertaken as the best one but what’s truly should be asked how the economic system will function after all because the vaccine creation can take years in the worse scenario? Can we really trust our governments?
Any measures to combat epidemics should be ethically justified in the first place. It should be borne in mind that very tough measures such as multi-month quarantine can lead to the fact that people cease to voluntarily submit to it, but when this happens it is difficult to establish in advance.
In addition, when considering various deterrence measures, the authorities have to make a choice between economic costs and the saved lives of people at risk — but this is also an ethical, not an empirical, issue.
…and in the meantime, since 2021 considered to be a year of baby-boom (thanks to self-isolations and quarantines), new innovative startups and depressive people, remember to enjoy your life and be prepared for the future…
