Whats the chance of a conventional or nuke war with the US and its enemies?
Everyone’s heard of world war 2 and world war 1, they were great devastating conflicts originating in Europe and spreading around the globe, but what about a third world war? What would it look like?
WW1
World War 1 lasted from July 28, 1914 all the way to November 11, 1918. It was nicknamed the “Great War” as everyone hoped that it was a war to end all wars.
It all started when Serbian Nationalist Gavrilo Princip shot and killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand causing Austria-Hungary, a large empire at the time, to declare war on Serbia. Because of already high tensions in the region, it didn’t take long for alliances and pacts to form in Europe. After Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, Serbia’s ally, Russia declares war on Austria-Hungary. As a result, Germany declares war on Russia and France. Germany then marches into Belgium which violated the 1839 Treaty of London and the UK declares war on Austria.
In the end, two sides emerge. The Central Powers consisting of: Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire (modern day turkey). And the Allies which consisted of France, the UK, Russia (left due to the Bolshevik Revolution), and the US(which joined later in the war)
As fighting started, 2 main fronts emerged, the eastern front and the western front. Germany’s initial plan was to take France down and then focus on Russia. However, they couldn’t take out France and was stalemated in trench warfare. Meanwhile, the Russians were low on supplies but continued to fight back. On April 1917, the US joined the war due to the sinking of the Lusitania and the Zimmerman telegraph. However, on March 3, 1918 Russia pulled out of the war due to the Russian Revolution. These two factors led to the end of the war on November 11, 1918.
The treaty of Versailles blamed the war on Germany and shrank their military in addition making them pay outrageous amounts of money. Estimated casualties were around 15 to 22 million deaths.
WW2
World War 2 lasted from 1939 to 1945. It was a devastating war that shocked millions.
After the treaty of Versailles, Germany was humiliated at their defeat. A young ambitious man named (obviously) Adolf Hitler rose to power. He immediately started beefing up the German military breaking the treaty, however, the allies did nothing. As time went on, he “conquered” Czechoslovakia and Austria. Due to rising tensions, the allies threatened Germany that if they invaded Poland, they would declare war. Germany continued and war broke out only 20 after the last war.
The sides changed a bit since WW1 but it was relatively the same. On the Allies there were, the UK, France, the US (joined later [why does the US always join later??]), and Russia (switched sides). On the Axis there were, Italy, Germany, and Japan.
In Europe, Hitler swept through France, succeeding in months. Then he turned on Russia and made a mistake. He invaded Russia. Germany swept through Russia but met fierce resistance, soon, Moscow was in sight. But one battle was a turning point in the war. Stalingrad. This famous battle halted the German advance and turned the tides. Due to the winter, German forces froze and retreated.
On December 12, 1941, Japan launched a devastating attack on the US base in Pearl Harbor. This drew the US in the war. In the pacific, Japan continued to crush everyone, taking Guam, the Philippines, Guadalcanal, and more. However, the Stalingrad in the pacific was the battle of midway. This was the turning point for the US in the war. The US sank most of Japan’s aircraft carrier and crippled their fleet. Then, the US started a brutal island hopping campaign.
Meanwhile in Europe, Italy had been taken from the south but the german army there was in a stalemate. Then, on June 6, 1945, thousands of troops landed in Normandy, France. Even though it was extremely costly, they were able to get a toehold into Europe. With two crushing giants, the US and UK in the west and USSR in the east, Germany fell.
In the pacific, the Island hopping campaign proved deadly but useful. After taking Iwo Jima and Okinawa, they were faced with two choices. Either Invade Japan or drop the atom bomb. In the end, they dropped the atom bomb to save American lives.
WW3?
Now we’re in the 21st century, will another war start and will it be the same? The answer to the first question is unlikely, conventional war like WW1 and 2 probably won’t happen again. There could be some small wars such as the Ukrainian invasion right now but a full out world war is unlikely because of two reasons, Deterrence and diplomacy
Deterrence is what every country aims for. NATO is a key deterrence factor to Russia. Turkey could help black sea deterrence. Deterrence is the way to prevent war while asserting dominance in the region
Diplomacy is a very powerful tool right now. Diplomacy is “working” in Ukraine and can usually mitigate or prevent wars.
Though these two factors contribute greatly to world peace in the status quo, issues such as miscalculations can arise. Miscalculations are when a country accidentally does something like firing a missile. Another type of miscalculation is when the enemy perceives a test as an attack and responds preemptively.
Second, even if a war breaks out, it will be completely different. Technology has exploded. Now instead of using conventional warfare, it will most likely be with trade and cyber.
First is trade. If war breaks out, powerful countries will sanction each other resulting in a global economic crisis. You can see that happening in Ukraine. Right now, Russia has been slapped with sanctions and its economy is in shambles. Because the world is so interdependent, a war could destroy economies.
Second are cyberattacks. Cyber technology has increased. Hackers have been hacking networks. War could be a lot more digital now. Cyberattacks can damage entire electrical systems and destroy networks causing famine and worse. This new technology is extremely different from the past where, it’s man-man.
The world has drastically changed. From trench warfare to poison gas to cyberattacks. We are living in an era where everything is changing. From man vs man to computer vs computer. Are you ready?
