Very interesting read. I was a little surprised to see the historian wax nostalgic at the prospect of the decline of America, as my perception was that he was somewhat hostile to the American Project. He has, in his research and writings, demonstrated in details some (but by no means all) of the low points of American conduct, but then says, hey in the grand scheme of things, altogether not so bad.
I don’t share the view that in 13 years America will be in serious decline, although there are greater challenges today and going forward than we have ever faced. But the same is true of the other world powers. Barring a miracle, Russia will have trouble even having the influence they have now. Their population is shrinking yearly, their economy is based nearly in its entirety on oil, they have close to no rule of law, and they are ruled by an autocrat who has so much blood on his hands, and tens of billions in stolen property, that he cannot leave office except in a box, in handcuffs, or on a plane to a safe haven. China, while having had a forty year run from the Seventies that saw average monthly income go from $40 to over $1,000, has many constraints and unresolved contradictions. Xi is thinking about shutting down the Internet to protect their ideological bubble, but that will have (and is having) disastrous consequences for their society and economy. In the last couple of years, several Trillion dollars has leaked out of China, elites are having babies and establishing residences outside of China, and are positioning themselves for a crash of some kind. Europe (God bless Europe) is challenged existentially from a range of threats, and while it is a great relief to see their economy growing again, they can only exist with Big Daddy USA covering them militarily and otherwise. America is still the country where each day hundreds of people risk their lives to enter.
So, will we Americans rise to the manifold challenges confronting us? In the end we will probably muddle through, and emerge as still the leader, even if it will be the leader of a much more distributed, fragmented world.
