As a scientist, I look at social and political phenomena through the lens of general systems theory (GST). GST provides a useful tool for understanding the dynamics of systems. Instead of studying the constituent parts of a society or organization, GST enables researchers to understand a system as a gestalt. It involves mapping feedback loops that either maintain equilibrium or destabilize the system. By mapping out these feedback loops, one can make predictions about how the system will change and evolve.
For many years now, I have been observing American politics through a GST lens. Consider, for example, the rise of Trump in the Republican Party. Three years ago, in response to a 2013 article in AMERICAblog, I posted the following:
The Republicans are caught in a vortex where the crazier they get, the crazier they get. It is a reinforcing feedback loop. If there was some way to anchor together all the extremists and then take a few steps away from them, the vortex might serve us well. But there are so many vortexes (protofascism, global warming, plutocracy, antibiotic resistance) and we are so interconnected that it seems impossible to disentangle ourselves from the vortex and its destructive path.
At this time, the Tea Party was in full bloom and threatening to let America default by not raising the debt ceiling. I could see the systems dynamics at play within the Republican party. They kept moving right, and as they moved right, anyone left of average (within the Republican Party) was sidelined, which, in turn, moved the average further to the right. This is a classical, reinforcing feedback loop, which was threatening to destabilize the GOP and bring down the government itself.
Out of this bubbling cauldron enters Trump, as if conjured by three weird Republican sisters (Bachmann, Coulter and Palin?). Trump both personifies and controls the vortex. He stirs the pot with his incessant tweets and provocative statements on the campaign trail. It just gets crazier and crazier. The election is rigged. There is a conspiracy of the Media and Clinton campaign. Clinton is a part of an international cabal of financiers who are rigging the election. Minority voters must be monitored because they cheat. It appears that every Republican dog whistle has become blatant and reified.
Even now, the vortex grows in strength. As reinforcing feedback loops are destabilizing, a rupture of the GOP looms on the horizon. Three weeks from the election, some are predicting that Trump could deliver the Senate and possibly the House to the Democrats. Such a historic realignment might force the GOP to deal with the racism, misogyny, xenophobia and downright extremism that is now a core component of the GOP brand.
That, of course, is wishful thinking. Although Democrats might retake the Senate, Republics will surely maintain control of the House owing to gerrymandered districts.
If Hillary wins, expect the process to start anew. The remaining Republicans will get a new House Speaker that will be even less willing to work with Democrats. Members of the House Freedom Caucus will begin endless hearings about Emails, WikiLeaks, Benghazi, and God knows what else.
Unlike other candidates, Trump will not accept defeat gracefully. My guess is that he will begin a “government in exile” with periodic press briefings live on the new Trump network. Working synergistically with House Republicans, the Trump network will continue stirring up the political waters. In other words, the political dynamics may return to its former turbulent state.
But what if she loses? After all, one can never underestimate the ability of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A Clinton election loss would mean the vortex swallows us all. We’d be trapped in some dystopian alternative universe where America becomes a reality show hosted by Trump. Weirder things have happened in the world — or maybe not.
So what is a systems thinker to make of these two forecasts? The Trump win scenario would be fine and dandy if you support him. If not, what can be done to rescue America from this unhappy state of affairs? Without deep and radical systems change, America will be trapped in this pattern until it gets swallowed by a vortex.
GTS can offer many strategies to bring about systems change, but a paradigm shift may be the most powerful. Bringing about such a paradigm shift in America is easier said than done.
