How Will We Know When the COVID-19 Pandemic is Getting Better?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

A guide to interpreting COVID-19 data

With the endless stream of headline-grabbing numbers and figures being reported about the COVID-19 pandemic, it is easy to lose sight of what we might learn from the data. As a physician, I believe decisions must be guided by science and data, and for that we must understand data in context. Ultimately, we are all desperately hoping to see signs that the COVID-19 pandemic might be improving.

This article will be a brief guide to understanding and interpreting the various forms of data being reported on COVID-19. Questions I hope to answer in this post including the following:

1. What are the daily numbers telling us?
2. How do limitations on testing affect the data?
3. How can we tell if social distancing is working?
4. What is not being reported?
5. What kind of data should we be asking for?
6. What are the signs that an outbreak has been contained?

Principles for interpreting COVID-19 data

1. Look for trends and patterns
Drawing conclusions from a single data point is one of the easiest mistakes to make. Because day-to-day variations in…