2018 Crypto Keyword:User Centric
Bitcoin came blasting in to the main stream like the new kid on the block who came to crash the party. He had all the good looks, knew all the dance moves and everybody loved him. Except, nobody really knew who the hell he was or where he came from. There is still very little widespread understanding of Bitcoin, crypto and blockchain. Last year, crypto assets did get its initial first wave of acceptance (more coverage in mainstream news, ETF, listed futures, Hedge Funds, etc) but at the end of the day it is still a tiny market compared to fiat markets even at USD600 billion market cap, and the market has been driven purely by speculation without any public adoption for everyday use. Speculators also dived into ICOs without much realization of projects and constant battling with scams.
For 2018, growth will continue but probably at a much slower and measured pace. Personally, I believe crypto currencies must move from pure speculation to much wider adoption for practical use. Will we see the the next Bitcoin killer, Ethereum killer, iTunes killer? Will blockchain be widely adopted for government services, for secure file sharing, search engines, advertisement, secure P2P businesses? The ICO market should also see much less speculative profit being recycled into unrealized projects. This will be the year that will separate the men from the boys — projects that deliver solid products and results this year will be the ones that survive. Also, as acceptance and adoption of crypto currencies into the mainstream gets wider and deeper, infrastructure needs to be built not just around BTC but other payment platforms. A user centric approach is imperative. As it stands now it is much too painful a process for practical purposes and a much more user focused approach to project development will be key.
Unfortunately, I won’t be making any price predictions. Metrics are not established for valuation of crypto assets. I do believe there must be a good balance between micro analysis vs macro, technology vs finance. Crypto assets and blockchain is much more complex because in fact it is a social, economical, behavioral, technological, political, cultural and even philosophical movement. We need to think out of the box and completely change our mind set. Fair value is when all is in balance in the world between old and new. Crypto and blockchain will someday be an integral part of life just like the internet. The day will come when we sit down at a cafe in any part of the world and think, “Shall I have a coffee or tea?”, and at the same time we think just as casually, “In which shall I pay today, crypto or fiat?” This could be many years off, but it is something that all crypto enthusiasts envision and hope for.