In the U.S., many people believe that the countries of Singapore and South Korea have “crushed” COVID-19 through rapid, wide scale test-and-trace procedures. It is often suggested that they have done this with minimal economic disruption, and that they will be economic oases, while the U.S. is doomed to cower in ruins because it won’t put in the effort to follow their lead.
I believe this idealized, highly distorted version of events is a dangerous distraction to Americans, pushed by political leaders and cultural elites who don’t want to accept the status quo is gone and that hard choices will need to be made. It has gained fairly widespread acceptance among many Americans, many highly intelligent, who are understandably desperate to believe there is some reasonably quick fix available. I don’t want to be unduly pessimistic, but I believe it is crucial to our welfare that we understand what’s going on and use that knowledge to inform our actions. We should have hope, but we can’t afford denial.
While I could go into detail about the way these countries have actually handled COVID-19, or about the ways in which we differ politically, culturally, and geographically, I’d rather talk about something that is getting even less attention.
For all the praise of South Korean President Moon and Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee, which has led many to wish they would take over the U.S.’s response and get our house in order, there has been conspicuously little coverage of their remarks about the foreseeable future.
Some have lamented the fact that we do not live in a country where the leader can speak straightforwardly to the public as though they are mature and competent adults. I actually do think most Americans are capable of handling this, and that the problem is more on the side of the politicians and cultural elites, most of whom evidently can’t handle it.
Whatever the case may be, let’s listen to the comments of Moon and Lee, and see what that kind of straightforwardness looks like. And let’s think about how the remarks stack up against the image we are being sold of South Korea, Singapore, and the future of America.
In mid-March, Lee gave an interview, and spoke of concerns that Singapore would experience another outbreak, as had happened in South Korea. “If I made an analogy, it is not that the tide has turned, it is that we put the dykes up,” he said, and water could leak in at any time.
People should expect the virus to persist for “quite some time” based on current evidence, said PM Lee, as the virus continues to be a global problem despite successes in keeping cases down in individual countries.
The coronavirus “is going to catch fire in many countries, and is going to take a long time to burn out”, he added.
He also said “Singapore faces grave and extended challenges. We can’t tell when the pandemic will end, but it will likely last at least this year, and quite possibly longer.The economic hit will likely be more serious than the Global Financial Crisis, and longer-lasting too . . . I fully expect things to get more serious before they start getting better.” He suggested calling elections early, “knowing that we are going into a hurricane, to elect a new government with a fresh mandate and a full term ahead of it . . . COVID-19 may well turn out to be the crisis that defines this generation of Singaporeans.”
Around the same time, Lee also gave an interview to CNN. Apparently trying to cool relations between the governments of the U.S. and China, he called for America to step up as a global leader. But he was clear he didn’t mean this would be quick or easy, or accomplished by replicating the strategy of Singapore.
In fact, he said his government was under “no illusions that we have won,” and “hesitate[d] to talk about success because we are right in the midst of a battle which is intensifying.” It could be several years, he said, before the virus runs its course throughout the world “unless something happens to abort that process.”
Around the same time, Lee spoke to reporters, saying the tide “had not turned” for Singapore. “We are under no illusions that this is the end of the story because nobody can tell what lies ahead.”
On March 29, Bloomberg reported that Singapore was fighting new outbreaks, and that Lee had said that “industries such as tourism and aviation are virtually dead.” He also was quoted as saying “I don’t see this problem going away in a couple of months,” and that it will be “‘several years’ before the virus runs its course.”
Now let’s look at some other remarks:
4/1/2020: The Straits Times printed an interview with Singapore’s National Development Minister Lawrence Wong, who co-chairs the multi-disciplinary task force for Covid-19.
“Q: The Government has also mentioned that the virus will be with us for the long term. How long is long term?
Mr Wong: There is no short-term fix that will cause us to reset back to a normal situation. It’s just not going to happen.
…Q: The TraceTogether contact tracing app was launched last month and a tool to streamline contact tracing processes, if more Singaporeans were to come on board and use the app. Why will the TraceTogether app make such a big difference to contact tracing?
Mr Wong: You rely on the person’s memory, and it takes time and it may not be complete because there will be lapses. But if there was a better way to track down all the close contacts, then the ability to catch all of the close contacts would be much more comprehensive and faster. So this can potentially be a very effective tool for contact tracing. But we do need more Singaporeans to come on board, download and turn on the app.
There is no magic going on here with test and trace or red zones and green zones. The main strategy was forced quarantine of all new arrivals to the country, which is why tourism and aviation are dead there. And Singapore’s leadership is crystal clear that we are in this for the long haul. Meanwhile, U.S. media pushes the story that, despite some unfortunate outbreaks, Singapore has a good chance at quick eradication and is basically laughing at our inability to replicate their techniques.
4/30/2020: Lee tells the public to take a long-term view, and be prepared to weather economic disruption, especially due to restrictions on the movement of people and goods. He said it was likely that “significant structural changes” would occur in Singapore’s economy,” such that “some jobs will simply disappear.” As a result, the government was preparing “to help match and train displaced workers for new job opportunities,” but the road to recovery would be “long and hard.” In fact, COVID-19 will be “this generation’s challenge.” He was confident the people of Singapore to rise to the occasion and prove themselves worthy of their forebears.
This is what should be being said by U.S. leaders, but they are totally unable to admit that some sectors are dead for the near future, and therefore we can’t do the requisite planning that would mitigate this. We’re being given false hope by claims that the Singapore strategy will rapidly save the status quo if we only try hard enough. Not even Singapore is claiming that this is on the table!
Just this week, in fact (5/14/20), Singapore Airline Group, the parent corporation of Singapore Airlines, announced its first annual net loss. Its assessment of its situation was matter-of-fact:
“The prospects for a recovery in international air travel in the months ahead depend upon when border controls and travel restrictions ease. There is no visibility on the timing or trajectory of the recovery at this point, however, as there are few signs of an abatement in the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Meanwhile, South Korea is facing another outbreak. Recently (5/10/20), South Korean President Moon Jae-in said that even if it was under control now, he expected a second wave at the end of the year. “It’s not over until it’s over . . . We are in a prolonged war.” He described the economic damage to South Korea as “colossal.” Like Singapore, South Korea is working on a massive economic recovery plan. Meanwhile, U.S. leaders mainly dodge the issue or discuss a V-shaped recovery. A few prominent figures lecture the U.S. that, unlike South Koreans, Americans will have no strong economy until they adopt South Korean practices and crush COVID-19. Many imply South Korea will be the new international business hub. Not even South Korea is claiming it has saved its economy. And are international businessmen willing to put up with a 14-day-quarantine? They seem to think a negative test will be enough, though false negatives are reasonably common.
South Korea did have many tests available early on, but used them mainly for informational purposes or to determine who needed treatment. The eradication strategy was not not to locate cases through widespread, constant testing of the population, but to isolate and test international arrivals for two weeks, sometimes using phone apps to check in with them. Apps were also used to alert the public to new cases, and various methods of contact tracing were used to locate people involved in some super-spreader events. The community spread in the U.S. is extensive, and we’ve been reluctant to impose such strict, mandatory quarantines on international travelers. It is impossible to imagine that having been put in place in January, when it might have made a real difference.
I do not mean to suggest that the responses of South Korea and Singapore haven’t been impressive, or that we do not have much to learn from them. In fact, I think we should learn even more from them, by actually listening to their leaders’ straightforward remarks, and comparing them with the quality of information we’re getting in the U.S. On the whole, I think the coverage has been highly misleading and is holding us back from dealing with reality. No difficult decisions will be made as long as we think there is any possibility of a quick fix. That doesn’t mean embracing a dystopian future, but it does mean giving up fantasies that the status quo will be awaiting us, perfectly preserved, as soon as we implement South Korea-style test and trace.
Update 5/19/20: I just got an email newsletter touting how other countries were much closer to “normal” than the U.S., thereby “putting us to shame.” One example given was that New Zealand had declared COVID-19 suppressed and ended its lockdown. This is true. New Zealand’s geography and quick response made this a realistic pursuit. Of course, New Zealand also shut down most air travel and implemented a 14-day quarantine for returning citizens. There is talk of allowing travel from nearby countries like Australia if they manage to get the pandemic equally under control, because New Zealand’s economy is so reliant on tourism, but there is no timetable for that. Its leaders have been honest with the public. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said the country faces the most challenging economic conditions since the Great Depression. She gets a lot of praise by many in the U.S., but that part gets left out. We need to do better.
Thanks to A. Nonymous for encouraging me to write this piece!
