A Tale of Two Squirrels: The Not So Simple Math on Venture Portfolio Size
Matt H. Lerner

Unsurprisingly, I did some similar analysis 4–7 years ago when were launching our first pre-seed fund. Now up to 675 companies across two funds.

Basic simulation:

Applied to historical data and looking at whether you’d prefer to be prolific or skilled (as it turns out, one can be both, of course):

And then comparing the reverse cumulative distributions of different portfolio sizes using resamplings of the real data:

We like to say all you have to do to stay ahead of the game in startup investing is steal 30 year old ideas from the public markets :-)

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