Thanks for your feedback Peter. When I wrote the piece I needed to make a number of assumptions, both in terms of market size of the problem Ivy was apparently approaching and also the state of readiness of the Ivy solution. Having now learned much more, it seems that the target user base (financial institutions) will take longer to convert due to challenges around integration of legacy systems and general friction when it comes to change. It also appears that the solution envisaged will require modification based upon prospects’ feedback. I’d say this is probably normal start up experience. So, if I were to revisit the model, I would be sliding the projections down the timeline and also modifying market-take accretion rates.
Turning to token price and the model itself. I would say the token price has fallen due primarily to market conditions, along with the majority of all other tokens. Clearly, until utility is proven and user adoption gains traction, the price of any utility token will reflect the degree of speculative interest in it. Again, current market conditions have dampened speculative interest for many tokens. As regards the model itself, perhaps the key driver of price outcomes is velocity. It is here that the guessing game really begins. As networks evolve, the nature and extent of the utility provided may change and so too may the manner in which the network token is employed. There are plenty of discussions on velocity sink theory but I am not sure how such mechanisms will play out in reality. Will Moore’s law kick in as a network gains dominance and, if so, will that convey value to the token itself and to what extent? As you can read, I have more questions than answers.
I too am curious about security tokens and their valuation. Like some others, I believe these will become the dominant form of tokens over time. Will we be able to value them as we do equity (common stock), or will they have specific assets attributable to them, part of which may be allocated to network value? Your guess is as good as mine or anyone else’s at this time. That’s part of the fun but also part of the frustration. Happy to share my thoughts as they evolve. Please do keep me in the loop with your thinking too.