Kentucky Derby 142: thoughts and a pick

1. Trojan Nation: Could he be the first Derby runner who hasn’t broke his maiden? He certainly surprised the public in the Wood Memorial, going off at odds of 81.50. Would be a similar shock on Saturday, should he win.

2. Suddenbreakingnews: Another contender who took the Oaklawn path to the Derby. A very dramatic win in the Southwest Stakes (was 13th at the second call) was followed up with a more grounded fifth in the Rebel. I think he just had too much ground to make up. Looks poised to pass tired foes in the Churchill stretch, but will he be too far back to have any impact on results?

3. Creator: Winner of the Arkansas Derby. It took 4 times to break his maiden, but he followed up with two good races. This one closed strongly in the Rebel, and built on that in the Arkansas Derby. That race had a mad scramble in the stretch, much like some past runnings of the Derby. Creator had a less than ideal start, was wide, bumped, but drove on. The caveat: he could be buried in the Derby pack depending on his start, and shut out of a victory path.

4. Mo Tom:His 2016 race comments are littered with phrases like “checked badly”, “hit gate”, “bumped”. In other words, trouble seems to find him in every race. At some point, the good luck steps in to balance out the bad luck and we start to see his true ability, right? Getting some buzz by Derby watchers still, and was the favourite or near-favourite in his last three races. He is facing a field double the size of his last race. Not a bad punt at 26.00.

5. Gun Runner: Top rated horse on the Derby leaderboard, but I have reservations based off vanilla looking wins in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star. He looked to be drifting a bit in the Louisiana Derby stretch but I could be mistaken. I maintain those races do not carry the same weight as other Derby preps. If this is the year that trend changes, then so be it. How might he win? Pace. If he settles into a favourable position, and he looks to have a good chance at one, he could be in contention. I think his odds of 13.00 are fair.

6. My Man Sam: On paper, he’s an interesting one. I’m not thrilled at his four race career, but he’s been showing improvement with each race. He had a terrible trip in the Blue Grass, going very wide in the final turn, yet rallied strongly to finish second. Can he make his mark in a what appears to be a race with at least six other late running types?

7. Oscar Nominated: His racing history and pedigree say two things: 1) he is probably better suited to the turf and 2) he’s probably not good enough to compete with the other horses running in the Derby. Having said all that, he still might be in a position to finish in the money based on pace. A price of 40–1 came to mind and it looks like you can get him for around 50.00.

8. Lani: Please note, he ran the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles as a 2YO (on turf). There are plenty of unknowns and question marks as outsiders have not fared well in this race. Also, how will the pre-race routine and Derby crowd affect him? There’s some value in his price, but not much. He finished strongly in the UAE derby after looking almost certain to take second. There’s upward potential in this one, and it wouldn’t surprise to see his connections contest the Belmont stakes. That might be the time to back him. Wait and see for now.

9. Destin: He went from an optional claiming race to winning the Tampa Bay Derby in the span of three months. The downside? His last race was on March 12. He may need a few races to get into peak condition. The upside? The ceiling on this horse could be a lot higher than what people are expecting. Still getting respect from oddsmakers at odds of 13.00. I would opt to watch a race or two first.

10. Whitmore: I like the contenders who ran at Oaklawn this year, and Whitmore strikes me as a very willing horse who responds well to his to jockey. Of note: Triple Crown winning jockey Victor Espinoza will be in the saddle. With some racing luck, I can see a top six finish.

11. Exaggerator: This one has good racing experience. In the San Felipe, he had to make up considerable ground for a respectable third place finish. He followed that up with a nice win in the Santa Anita Derby. To be fair, a blistering pace from Danzig Candy in that race helped him get the win. Still, he’s deserving as the second choice behind 13) Nyquist.

12. Tom’s Ready: One of two horses with nine races experience. However, he’s been inconsistent, and not very convincing in his graded stakes attempts. Pass.

13. Nyquist: Can Nyquist follow in the footsteps of Street Sense and sweep the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby? The same trainer, jockey and owner of I’ll Have Another are thinking yes. He’s been undefeated in seven starts, most recently in the Florida Derby. He looked very comfortable in that race, and had no trouble putting away 14) Mohaymen. Still, pulling off the Juvenile & Derby double is no easy feat. It’s a different set of circumstances for every horse, but it should be noted Street Sense won the Juvenile at Churchill. He also had Calvin Borel, no stranger to Churchill Downs, as rider on both victories.

14. Mohaymen: On course for a promising 2016 until his disappointing finish in the Florida Derby. Was it the competition or added distance? His past wins have come rather easily, so it’s not encouraging to see a Derby runner flub in what was a two-horse race. Oddsmakers are not exactly writing him off however, pricing him as the 3rd choice at 9.00. I’m willing to look elsewhere.

15. Outwork: He tried to wire the Tampa Bay Derby, and was caught late. Still, it was not a bad attempt. This strategy paid off in the Wood Memorial, where he hung on for first. In a Derby field loaded with closers, could he build enough of a lead to stave off late runs and hit the board?

16. Shagaf: Enters the Derby with four starts in 2016. A determined effort in the Gotham was enough to make him the post-time favourite in the Wood Memorial. He finished fifth in the Wood Memorial, although I think he was simply beaten by better horses on that day. His regular jockey Irad Ortiz has opted to ride #6) My Man Sam instead of Shagaf. That’s enough of a sign for me to look elsewhere for the winner.

17. Mor Spirit: Also-ran to Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby. Maybe he didn’t take to the sloppy track but he was also much closer to the pace than Exaggerator. In seven starts he’s been the post-time favourite, but has only won three. I think he has potential, and you could see a glimmer of that in his run in the San Felipe Stakes:

Note how he was passed by Exaggerator but was able to still mount a late charge. Also, he seems to need urging to get into full stride. Should he run at his best on Saturday, the Churchill stretch drive will be to his advantage. Now the pace scenario gets kinda fuzzy in a field as large as the Derby, but I have a hunch he will be in a position that makes the Derby winnable.

18. Majesto: Comes into Derby 142 with a longshot profile. Not sure if he will outrun his odds (I’d make him 50–1), but you are probably going to get a fair price for all the unknowns here.

19. Brody’s Cause: Winner of the Blue Grass in a full field of 14. Of all the prep races I’ve watched, his performance is visually the most impressive. Of course, the past does not necessarily repeat, but at least I know he is capable of something special. Post 19 does not help his cause. Unless he changes his tendency to follow the pack, he will have too much ground to make up in the latter stages of the race.

20. Danzig Candy: Showed a lot of early speed in the Santa Anita Derby. As one would expect, he had little in the tank at the finish line. He is a pacesetting horse, and the Derby is not kind to this type of runner. It is difficult to see value even at his odds.