my favourite bet for 2016

So there’s a prop bet for the 2016 US election:

Source: Pinnaclesports.com, April 8, 2016

I’m writing this a few days after the Wisconsin primary. Although Bernie Sanders has a string of victories, the betting market is still very much convinced his opponent is 1) going to be the Democratic nominee and 2) going to emerge as the winner in the general election (I’m assuming this means getting at least 270 electoral votes). While this may be the most likely outcome, I can’t help but question it.

Now, I don’t consider myself a political analyst, as that would imply some kind of expertise. But, I’m not terrible at questioning things when they seem off (or in this case, overvalued). As far as I can tell, any number of things can still happen from now to November. When some of those things do happen, they won’t be helpful to the front-runner in the mentioned prop bet.

For instance, I’m thinking of things like:

  • Continued support for Trump, who looks to have some kind of lasting impact on this election even if he doesn’t win the nomination for his party.
  • Continued support for Sanders, who is probably not going to win the Democratic nomination(?), but has a very loyal cadre of supports. Some will refuse to support Clinton in a general election should Sanders not be the nominee. He’s also continuing to raise very significant dollars in a game that requires heavy spending ($43.5 million in February). If anything, he’s not going to disappear due to lack of financial resources.
  • The combined interest of the above two candidates as a sign voters are very open to voting against mainstream candidates.
  • Potential fallout from the ongoing investigation regarding the private email server that Clinton used as Secretary of State. I’ll leave the case specifics for you to research, but I’ll say this: I’ve never heard of a Presidential candidate who was under investigation by the FBI.
  • Introduction of new candidates for the general election. There’s already talk of brokered and/or contested conventions.

It’s hard not to see some value in backing the field at 2.85. November should be interesting.

Apr 8/16: something else to consider: pledged superdelegates are free to switch allegiance at anytime

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