We are living in unprecedented times. It’s time to question some of the most basic assumptions about your economic future, and America’s.

The following article was originally published in Frontera on 11 May 2020. To learn more about Frontera’s unique reporting and investment research, please visit our website.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” — Mark Twain

That quote was immortalized in the opening of the Oscar-winning film “The Big Short”. …

Foreword: You may not be aware — particularly if you live in the United States— but the global economy is now entering uncharted territory as negative interest rates become reality in Europe and elsewhere. Suddenly the financial media (sponsored in no small measure by global banks) are working overtime to ‘educate’ the masses as to why the practice of paying your bank to hold your cash makes perfect sense. (They conveniently forget to mention that they will immediately lend your money to other customers, but good luck getting negative rates as a borrower!)

Amidst this insanity, I will attempt to…

Here’s why my fund, amidst a ferocious drawdown in the cryptoasset markets, has chosen to draw a line in the sand.

My firm, Kosmos Capital Management, opened for business on May 1st of this year. Normally launching a fund with a long-biased — though by no means long-only — strategy to coincide with a 60% market drawdown would elicit sympathy from others in the investment community. …

Many crypto traders believe that a Coinbase listing can provide a significant boost to a cryptoasset. We dove into the numbers to find out whether this theory has any merit.

The past week has not been kind to cryptoasset markets. The much-vaunted Bitcoin Cash hard fork has descended into farce, creating uncertainty that brought the prior week’s rally to a screeching halt. …

Foreword: My intent for this article is to review recent events in the crypto market, starting with two data points that we encountered in the past week, and then reviewing the past year to understand what began and ended 2017’s parabolic bull run. We’ll then look at what happened to the last wave of crypto speculators, and who — if anyone — will replace them. Lastly, and most importantly, we’ll seek to understand what will need to happen before they enter.


Two events came to our attention this past week — one that we judge to be very good/bullish…

I am a partner in a start-up hedge fund, which launched earlier this year. This amounts to a risky endeavor in the best of circumstances. After all, over ten percent of hedge funds fail every year — and the average fund life expectancy throughout the industry is about five years.¹

Now consider that this new fund was set up exclusively to trade digital assets (many people use the term ‘cryptocurrency’; we prefer the former term since the full spectrum of ‘crypto’ includes many use-cases beyond what we consider to be currencies, such as utility tokens, securities, or stores of value).

Kevin Virgil

Kevin Virgil is the Cofounder and Portfolio Manager at Kosmos Capital Management, helping people invest in and learn about cryptocurrency.

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