It’s Either 4 or 0

When we learn that the first laptop ever made was invented in 1981 which is less than 50 years from now, we should start paying more attention to the pace at which technology is evolving. At this rhythm we can expect anything to happen during the next 10 years; and by anything I mean miracles as well as catastrophes.

The need for 4.0

Daily technological and scientific advancements are being achieved by people and corporations around the world, a huge flow of data is being exchanged between continents, which made it easy to invent stuff and come up with new ways of doing things. It is terrific how an invention that has just started in the U.S will be in China during the next day; being disassembled and Imitated or vice-versa and then from the same product another corporation in Tunisia gets inspired and creates something advanced that will make the first invention look dysfunctional. Competition is driving change, companies are spending lots of money on research and Development and it is not often because they want the best for their customers, it is mostly because if they stop inventing they will no longer exist in the market. Just like a marathon with a start sign but has no destination, where everyone is forced to participate and no one can stop because if you stop you will not survive and competitors will surpass you.

Nonconventional Revolution

Can we call this a pre-phase of a fourth Industrial revolution? Yes of course we can but I would rather call it an Exceptional industrial revolution. Industrial revolutions look so traditional in front of what we are experiencing now, even the conventional factors of production: Capital and labor are not necessarily needed, most successful companies now are not creating a tangible output as companies used to do before, they are most of the times managing things, supervising activities or working as intermediaries. A tweet from Tom Goodwin a famous Blogger went viral after describing this reality by saying “Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate. Something interesting is happening”.

Hope

I keep on thinking about when will this fourth industrial revolution strike, I am really optimistic about it since innovations like 3D printing may offer my best friend a new life with a 3D printed Kidney after she lost hers a while ago. Some advanced technologies may allow my government Tunisia to expect terrorist attacks before they happen by reading terrorists minds using an advanced interrogation system. It can also interconnect people around the world and make it easy for me to go and visit my friends in Europe and America without spending a whole day between Airports and customs and months applying for VISA.

4.0 Constraints

But as anything in our lives the fourth industrial revolution may have Pros and Cons. For instance we can see a lot of advantages and little bit of cons, but this equation may not remain the same in the future. Unemployment issues may arise since labor force will be replaced by automated systems, the social aspect of this revolution may be fatal, I am so upset with my friends when we go out for coffee and they start texting or playing games with their smart phones. Also it may cause a need for legislative reform; we should not forget that Uber when it first started in the US and France there was some legislative complication and we all know that Uber is not complicated invention as the ones we are expecting after the fourth industrial revolution; for example when some robot kills someone human; who is going to pay the bill? Is it the one who has created that robot or the one programmed or the one commanded or the robot itself? Dr. Stephen Hawking once said “The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”

Are we all better off?

In addition to all that the fourth industrial revolution will not be universal since some countries are more advanced than others so they are already advantageous whereas other countries in Africa for example have not reached the third Industrial revolution yet. The fairness aspect of this revolution should be discussed before doing anything, if not, only a small portion of the world will be better off. And there are some questions that should be asked like; do we really need this revolution? As I said in the beginning those innovations are driven mostly by competition not the need for them so at a certain point of time we may be end up by creating things that we do not really require; which is not a good thing when we have scarce resources. Another question that came to my mind is: are we ready and able to contain the revolution’s Side effects? Of course high technology means high uncertainties too, we do not know what we are expecting from this Fourth revolution so we should be ready to deal with changes and estimate flaws at all levels: Social, economic, political, legislative…

Finally I hope that we will not be obliged to fight an army of rebellion robots like Will Smith did in his I, Robot movie because it is ridiculous.