No, there won’t be a contested convention
Many conservatives who can’t stand Donald Trump are hanging their hopes on his not receiving the 1237 delegates necessary the capture the nomination, thereby forcing a contested convention. As I pointed out earlier, that won’t happen. But lest I appear biased as it was my husband’s post I linked to, I now link to an article in The Week by Damon Linker, who says much the same thing: Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee:
Trump already has at least 621 pledged delegates, and will rack up more as Tuesday’s votes are finalized. He already has more than half of what he needs to clinch the nomination. Between now and the last primaries on June 7, there will be eight (state- or district-level) winner-take-all contests — in Arizona, Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Indiana, California, New Jersey, and South Dakota. That’s another 439 delegates. If Trump won all of them, he’d have 1,060 — just 177 delegates short of what he needs.
Now Trump probably won’t win all of those states — and he probably won’t win all of the delegates in all of the states he does win, because of the quirks of district-level delegate allocation. But that leaves a long list of proportional states where Trump will surely win significant numbers of additional delegates. Cruz may win big in Utah, New Mexico, and few other places. (Mitt Romney’s attack on Trump will carry a lot of weight among the many Mormons in the former, while the latter borders Cruz’s home state of Texas.) But what about Trump’s home state of New York (with 95 delegates), and Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, and Oregon, and Nebraska, and Washington, and Connecticut, and Rhode Island? Maybe Cruz will carry Nebraska and another state or two. But will Trump really lose enough states to fail to earn the delegates he’ll need?
I know this is not what many want to hear. Keep in mind, I’m not saying this is a good thing or a bad thing. I’m saying it is what it is and continuing to wallow in denial does no one any good. Well, it does Hillary Clinton a lot of good. And what does Hillary a lot of good in her quest for the White House is just another way of saying it doesn’t do America any good.