Book Review: Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
According to Buddha, the first noble truth is that life is suffering. My own idea of the first cardinal truth is that human beings are inherently prone to self-deception, and therefore can be easily deceived. This notion is counterintuitive, because by default we consider ourselves to be smart, and even smarter than the others. Still, it is backed up by science and stands to scrutiny. Our cognitive scope is limited, which prevents us from interpreting the world and our own experiences in the right way. We make unwarranted conclusions. We fail to foresee the future. On top of that, we are skilled at rationalising our flops, typically by blaming others.
The best of us are not the infallible ones, but those who are acutely aware of their fallibility, and always take it into consideration in their decision making. From this perspective, Nassim Taleb is one of the smartest public intellectuals of our time. His thought is able to cut through deep piles on nonsense and get to the essence of things, even though some critics seem to be offended by his outspokenness. But it just confirms that our delusions are near and dear to our hearts, and we are ready to fight against those who challenge them.
As the title of the book suggests, most people downplay the role of random factors in their lives. It is clearly evident in those who take credit for their successes, along with those who study successes of others in search for useful recipes. “Nothing is accidental” is a commonly repeated motto. Rather than admitting the role of chance, we are looking for patterns and connections, even if they don’t actually exist. The course of evolutionary development wired us to be that way — but it us the limitation we need to transcend to effectively deal with complex issues of the modern world.
This book is not a scientific treatise (although it has solid references to contemporary researches). For the most part, it is a collection of stories, both real and fictional. My guess is that it is intentional, because stories seem to impress us deeper than the facts.
The author is not quite optimistic regarding the ability of old dogs to learn new tricks. But could we still get something from this book, if we would try really hard? Here is the list of suggestions I personally liked:
First, do not be inclined to believe in “success stories”. Chances are, people on the top were just lucky to be at the right place at the right time, and they cannot take credit for what they’ve achieved.
Second, do not envy those who are more successful. Due to random factors, tides may turn. Even more, behind the glamorous façade, they may struggle with life-threatening challenges.
Third, avoid the news and so-called analysts. They can only give you an illusion of being informed. The business of the news is to entertain, not to present the accurate and well-balanced picture of the world; and most “experts” have the abysmal track records of failed predictions.
Fourth, avoid overconfidence. Take risks, but always have the backup plan to minimise your losses if the things will go wrong.
Finally, develop a Stoic character. No matter what happens, it will allow you to live with awareness, to maintain peace and dignity. Ultimately, these are the only things that make life worth living. You are determined not by your successes or failures, but by your character. Your real identity is not affected by randomness of this world.
