Quantified Dating

This post originally appeared on the Saga blog, and is republished here with permission. It’s the first of a three-part series on quantified love, sex, and relationships.


Data-Driven Romance

When it comes to affairs of the heart, people tend to balk at the idea of using data to find a match. Even the fancy algorithms of online dating sites can’t predict chemistry. But it turns out that a bit of personal data analysis can make a huge difference when looking for love online.

A woman who went through a difficult divorce in 2013 has a Tumblr called “Quantified Breakup” where she illustrates some of the measurable effects of the breakup — like texts to friends, retail therapy spending, and instances of crying in public. Quantified Self data is most interesting when it reveals a process or transformation. Turning her grief into infographics not only helps her process her emotions, but it also reveals that she is getting better over time. Now her blog focuses on how she’s moving on: the awkward and surreal world of dating.

Like the majority of people who do online dating, she’s not interested in most of the men she meets, and vice versa. She measures the presence of “sparks” by the number of text messages exchanged. This great animated visualization illustrates what happened when she met a guy she’s into. He’s the sixth person she has met, and she exchanged a total of 1,249 texts with him over about a month. The most she exchanged with any previous date was 41.

Screen capture of text message animation

When I got divorced nearly a decade ago, online dating was still associated with creepy geeks who spend more time in Second Life than in real life. That wasn’t (entirely) true in 2005, and it’s even less true today. Top dating sites OkCupid and Chemistry have 30,000,000 members each. There are specialized sites for millionaires, seniors, and people looking for extramarital affairs, just to name a few. In 2005, 44% of Americans agreed that online dating is a good way to meet people. Today that number is nearly 60%. [view infographic]

Like everything else we do on the internet, online dating produces scads of personal data — and this is some of the most intimate data people are willing to share. Anyone with a penchant for personal data analytics — or big data analytics — will see a ton of potential for better understanding the human condition… and maybe even finding love.

OkCupid possesses some of the richest and strangest data about humans on the planet, and they are not shy about sharing analytics. It turns out that people who like beer are way more likely to have sex on the first date, and most people rate personality based on looks. Among OkCupid users, that is. They may not be representative of all of humanity, but what their data reveals is downright fascinating. For the curious, here are 10 charts about sex. NSFWish.

So, how can one use Quantified Self data and lifehacking techniques to improve their odds of finding love online? Like any good QS project, it starts with gathering data about yourself.


Dating: You’re Doing It Wrong

In ‘Data, A Love Story,’ Amy Webb details her almost unbelievably successful quantified dating experiment. She started online dating with terrible early results — one bad date after another, including one who walked out on a $1,300 dinner tab. The first thing she started tracking was occurrences of bad date behavior, like high fives and inappropriate sexual comments, just to prove to her mother that she wasn’t being picky. She soon had a pretty good list of attributes she didn’t want, but what did she want? She made a list. A very long list. She turned this list into a scoring system to empirically evaluate whether she should even go on a first date.

Page one of Webb’s three page list

Webb found that she wasn’t getting responses from the men who scored high, so she used data to evaluate her own profile. She set up a few fake male accounts, and used them exclusively to scrape data. She discovered the formula that makes women popular on dating sites: show some skin, smile, use the word “fun,” and don’t write more than about 100 words in your profile. She then optimized her profile, and immediately received a flood of responses. But none of these men met the benchmark of 700 points on her scoring system, so she didn’t agree to any first dates. The first man to hit the mark started with 850 points and went up to 1,050 after a 14-hour first date. They are now happily married with a daughter, and she never had to go on another bad first date. I highly recommend her hilarious TED talk.

http://youtu.be/d6wG_sAdP0U

She’s not the only one to game the dating system using data. Mathematician Chris McKinlay used mathematical modeling and an army of intelligent bots to outdo OkCupid’s algorithms. The site wasn’t working for him, and he decided to see if he could get better results. He was able to lump women on the site into seven clusters, he then optimized two different profiles for the two groups he liked. He used text analysis to find common keywords and interests and wrote his profiles accordingly. He picked the 500 most popular OkCupid questions and answered all of them, then he created a program to visit the pages of his top matches, so they would get notifications. The messages started pouring in at over 20 per day — enough that he could be picky.

McKinlay’s OKCupid segmentation

McKinlay wasn’t as successful as Amy Webb. It took 88 first dates for him to find a girlfriend, but after months of rejection and no dates, his experiment proved that data analytics truly can improve one’s dating odds. Productivity geeks use personal data for lifehacking purposes all the time, so why not hack dating?

The author of “Quantified Breakup” didn’t end up with the man of a thousand texts. Like many relationships that start with sparks, this one fizzled in a few weeks. But she isn’t upset about that. She has rediscovered her ability to connect, and with the data from her first few dates, she’s better equipped to focus her search. The fact that she sent a bazillion texts to a guy she likes may seem like a pretty obvious correlation, but it helps tell a story. It provides a concrete way to quantify a fleeting emotional response.

Gathering data on dating is a way to approach an ambiguous and emotionally fraught process more logically. I don’t need an algorithm or a record number of text messages to know if I like a guy, but a few thoughtful calculations — and a heap of self-knowledge — might help me decide whether to go on that first (or second) date. The fact is, a crush is not enough on which to build a relationship. Chris McKinlay and Amy Webb aren’t too picky, they’re smart about finding the right match. Treating dating as a game or experiment (at least in the early phases) might make the arduous process a little more enjoyable, and help us avoid bad dates and unhappy endings.