Beasts of Bellevue 2012–2016, a Statistical Lookback
Gentleman, our cherished Beasts of Bellevue has been in its current keeper format for half a decade now. Let’s step back through the years and see how things have shaken out.
First things first, who wins, and who loses?
Joey, Dan, and Lyons are our most consistently smug on Monday nights after the scores finalize, while Mills, Scott, and Sam have gotten the shorter end of the stick. Oster, our beloved tenderfoot, has a lot of catching up to do.
To account for Sam only having played four seasons, and Oster only having played one, let’s look at our individual wins/season metric instead.
Not bad, Oster. You took a lemon and made it a slightly less lemon-y lemon in your first season.
So that was wins. But what’s a win if it doesn’t come at the right time? Here’s a look at the standings through the years. The y-axis has been inverted, which means the top of the plot represents the top of the standings.
This is what parity looks like. What a mess. Two interesting observations from this jellybean spaghetti:
- In 5 years we’ve never had a repeat champion.
- Sam was our only two-time Sacko winner, although he sandwiched a championship appearance between those turds of seasons. Tu nous manques, Sam. We miss you.
Let’s clean that data up a little bit.
Up and to the right, Jake! Dan and I are both consistently contenders, except for that one year when I wasn’t. Scott’s still waiting for the magic to arrive, Mills is waiting for it to come back, and Karp is hoping to sustain his upward trend.
But what about the data that informs the wins and losses? I’m talking about points for, which we can consider skill, and points against, which we cannot control, and we will therefore consider luck.
So, in two of our five seasons I’ve been the unluckiest team. Sweet. That outcome has a probability of 4.98%. But I’ll stop wallowing, ‘cuz my luck’s gotta turn, right? And it’s better to be lucky than good, eh? Let’s see if that holds true in the Beasts of Bellevue.
In the above graph, we see that three of our champions (Shuds, Dan, and Joey), while all good, were also lucky. Nipples and Lyons brought home their titles despite Lady Luck looking the other way.
Recall that during the first year of the keeper format, WRs were grinding out 1 point per 15 yards gained. Every year since they get 1 point per 10 yards gained. After I correct for that in the data, we can see that scoring hasn’t changed too much over the years.
Alright, let’s talk about Jake and Mills. These guys run the waiver wire and free agent market like a pair of madames at a pleasurehouse. That is until Oster arrived on the scene, and turned the duo into a triumvirate.
Sure, tinkerstinker time feels good, but rub the lineup too much and it begins to chafe. Come back from those deep waiver waters, gents, and bask in the wins.
Or better yet, invest wisely during the draft. Let’s check out how we all like to blow our benjamins on draft day.
It was a fun four years paying the QB for Nips, but he decided to close the money bags this year. Just means he’s got plenty in the tank for Mitch Trubisky.
Mills and Joey both share a weird high investment/low investment on-off pattern from year to year when it comes to investing in the backfield.
Keeping an eye on you, Dan.
Did something happen on St. Albert in our formative years that fostered a mutual fear of tight ends in both Fratangelo brothers, and neighbor Karp? We can only speculate…
Shuds and Dan, we recommend you find a different father-son bonding topic than kicker compensation.
Lyons and Mills, Jake would like a dissertation on the merits of a defense on his desk first thing in the morning.
Here’s to the next half-decade, my fantasy compatriots, and happy rosterbating.