Feb 28
2025 — New World Order
Summary
The recent events in Ukraine have unraveled a lot of questions that many countries will have to find their own answers. India’s decision to abstain from voting on the UN Resolution against Russia has been criticized by many as chickening out. However, the fact is that India has every right to look out for its self-interest and make pragmatic decisions.
Meanwhile, China and Russia have figured out that it is crucial to work together to counter the United States. On the face of it, this can further complicate India’s choices. In this article, I argue that with some paradigm shift, India can play a major role in reshaping the World Order making the Eastern Hemisphere a formidable force.
The Catalysts, Drivers and Compulsions
The United States is making every effort to isolate and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions is being seen as a weapon that can cripple Russian economy which in turn can create an internal uprising eventually resulting in overthrow of the regime. This is the formula that US has implemented on multiple countries with some resulting in wars or some other ugly outcome. In all the cases, US left these countries in ruins without any leadership in place or commitment to rebuild. Think Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, Afghanistan and many others.
Will the same formula work with Russia? The answer is No. Russia is not in the same league as these smaller nations. For a Socialistic country that has lived with some form of sanctions for decades, new sanctions such as attaching properties of Russian Oligarchs will not make much of a difference for common Russian citizen. Surely, Russia will be looking to mitigate the impact of these sanctions by building/restructuring relationships with other countries having similar interests.
The United States has also stated that any country trading with Russia will mean inviting US sanctions on themselves. Remember President Bush’s famous words “You are with Us or against Us”? When Trump imposed these sanctions on Iran, India had no choice but to reluctantly accept given that the magnitude of trade with US was much larger than that with Iran. In the process India lost or was unable to complete many strategically important projects nor could India import Gas from Iran. This time around, India may not be in a mood to comply with US dictates to cut trade with Russia — the stakes are too high!!
Without Oil and Gas from Russia along with high levels of tension, the Energy prices on World Market is going to sky rocket. Inflation which is already reaching dangerous heights in many countries could spiral out of control. For an ambitious fast-growing country like India, this would be disastrous.
Then what choices would India have to avoid being in the bad books of Russia, the US or both?
India’s Options
India can take lessons from the 1971 war with Pakistan that resulted in creation of Bangladesh. The United States and Western Europe threatened India by moving the nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise to the Indian Ocean. Nixon and Kissinger were also urging America’s then new friend China to attack India by land. It was the erstwhile USSR that came to India’s rescue by intercepting US armada of war ships and discouraging China from getting involved.
India and Russia have gone through many such turbulent times over the last 7 decades. The relationship has survived and even strengthened over this period. Today, India’s biggest threat is China which needs to be addressed. Just recently, China and Russia signed an agreement that would provide for “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual nonaggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence”. The two countries will be eager to please each other at least during the honeymoon period of this newly reinstated relationship. The equations are changing and changing fast.
India needs to seize this opportunity to neutralize its security threats from China. This is how it can be done:
- Leverage strong relationship with Russia to counsel China that it is in its best interest to avoid unnecessary border infringements along the Indian border. Instead focus its energy on taking on the bigger threat from the Western Block. By being a good neighbor, China can expect support from both Russia and India.
- Russia can mediate in getting India and China to sign a similar Non-Aggression Treaty and even officially settling the border disputes.
- At this point, Pakistan which is heavily dependent on China will be more willing to work with India on resolving the Kashmir and other border issues.
- This can give raise to a new Security Block comprising of China-Russia-India-Pakistan. Something unimaginable today — but well within the realm of possibility. Strange times — Strange bed fellows!!
With higher levels of trust, India and Pakistan can now spend their scare resources on building world-class infrastructure that benefits their respective citizens. Today, both countries spend billions of dollars buying weapons from western countries making them rich while there are millions under poverty level in the Sub-Continent.
The Eastern Hemisphere has nearly 70% of the world’s population. However, for centuries it is the Western Hemisphere that has dominated world policies, politics and principles. The Western countries have not only looted and plundered many Eastern countries but have also been the creators of many of the disputes like partition of India.
Massive changes like these require strong leaders. Turns out Russia, China and India have it in Putin, Xi and Modi respectively. It is time the Eastern Hemisphere asserts itself on the World Stage — The time is just right — right now!!
Impact on Trade
Neutralizing the impact of US sanctions requires a new Reserve Currency. The 3 major countries can create a new Digital Currency to trade within the block. The recent advancements in FinTech including Cyptocurrency provides a great platform for such a Digital currency to be launched.
India will have access to the massive Chinese market for tech products and Pakistani market for both tech and non-tech products.
Impact on Smaller Asian countries
The improved Sino-India relationships would be a God-Send for smaller Asian Countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives where they no longer have to choose between India and China. These countries would gladly join the newly formed Asian Block.
How would US and Western Europe respond?
The formation of India-China-Russia alliance would definitely sound alarm bells among the NATO members. One can expect catchy phrases like “Axis of Evil” all over western media. More sanctions can be expected. The United States could form a counter block with Japan, Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and others. The Indian Ocean can be the new theater for control of trade routes.
Many US companies may be restricted from setting up offices with Russia-China-India. But then, will the large tech companies be able to resist access to market size of nearly 4 Billion with booming economies and talent pool that is par excellence? The critical mass of the market and skills may shift significantly towards the Eastern Hemisphere.
The threat to US Dollar as the Reserve Currency will have the biggest impact for the United States as the sole Super Power. It would be interesting to see how US will react to this threat.
Conclusion:
The confluence of multiple factors such as Geo-politics, Economics, Technology and emergence of new powers has set the stage for revamping the World Order that has existed for the last 3 centuries. By putting aside differences which in comparison to the benefits are minor compromises, India-China-Russia have an incredible opportunity to form an Asian Block by 2025. This would be the means to end the hegemony of the West in Asia by imposing arbitrary sanctions, invading countries on false pretext (Iraq) and driving their expansionist agenda like NATO.
The world order is on the verge of massive change. Yes, it will be chaotic and confusing — just like any change that is of this magnitude. The outcome would hopefully bring some long overdue justice to the exploited countries of Asia.
Disclaimer:
The views expressed in this article are purely my own personal thoughts. I am an ordinary citizen of the world with no background in Global Affairs or Military knowledge. The ideas might seem naive to some — that is just fine. Would love to hear your thoughts as well — Request that we keep the conversation free of personal attacks and stay close to the substance. This World belongs to all of us!!
