Not an unreasonable analysis, but trend lines are just one way of forecasting price movements, and IMHO certainly not the best. At the moment Bitcoin (and, hence most other crypto’s) is in a bearish cycle. The last bull cycle started in October of 2016. During this period BTC went from roughly $600 to a high of $19,000. While it is nearly impossible to call a top during a bull cycle, BTC holders definitely had ample opportunities to lock in profits.

The first bear signal came at the end of January, 2018. when BTC was around $12,000. The official bear trend began the beginning of this month at the $11,000 level. Similar to the bull trend, it is impossible to know where the bottom is, but one thing is for sure: we are in a bear cycle for BTC. What this means is that it is unlikely that BTC’s price will rise and hold any substantial gain at this juncture. We are in an environment where good traders are in the “sell the rally mode.”

When will it be safe to buy BTC again? The timing is next to impossible to know at this moment, but it will take time for the selling to subside and a new bull trend to begin. How much time? Unfortunately for bulls, not any time soon. This bear cycle could be over in as little as three to six months, but there is a strong possibility that it could be longer. Only time will tell.