PM Modi: Expect a Chinese attack in the next 48 hours

Dear Mr Narendra Modi,

Re the India-China-Bhutan border issue, based on the Chinese way of thinking, I think this is how events will unfold now:

  1. China will issue an ultimatum to India on or before 7 July, stating that if India does not remove troops within the next few hours, China will be compelled to use its military.
  2. You will scramble to have a meeting with Xi on the G-20 summit sidelines at Hamburg to try for a peaceful resolution, but you will be simply told withdraw or else.
  3. Based on this non-choice, as you come out of the meeting, you will hear news of the first Chinese attack. We will get the news a few hours later.

Understand this Mr Modi: China wants a war this time. That’s why they are so robust in their propaganda and that’s why they have removed the option of a peaceful resolution by publicly making demands for unilateral withdrawal of Indian troops as a “pre-condition”.

Based on further thinking, India should welcome this move, as with the first blood of the Indian soldier shed, anti-China sentiment will solidify in India. That sentiment should be used to snap all trade ties with China. This will be a major blow to China (not that they need Indian money, but the stopping of Indian money will hurt).

The enraged Chinese will make flanking attacks on Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh and capture sizeable border areas. Pakistan will also be ordered to attack on the western border, and terrorist activity will be stepped up in J&K. The army will have to commit itself fully on two fronts.

From the Indian ocean, the submarines will threaten the coastal cities. The navy will be locked there.

Territorial army will have to be pressed into action.

India will lose some territories as the Chinese might will be overwhelming for India. I am not sure about the extent but they will be sizeable.

I am estimating upto 40,000 Indians will be dead on the eastern front and upto 15000 Indians will be dead on the western front before ceasefire will occur on the intervention of the world powers fearing a nuclear escalation, after 6–8 months of war.

In the peace negotiations, China will offer captured areas to Indian in return for resumption of trade. India should say no to that.

Mr Modi, we can see a silver lining in this debacle. This is a splendid opportunity to conserve our money and push the Make in India campaign. Provide incentives to seriously accelerate the creation of an indigenous manufacturing base. The public will also support this push.

At the same time, abandon the scorched-earth policy and quickly build a robust rail and road infrastructure on the Eastern and Western fronts to prevent any future tactical disadvantage in military engagements.

Seriously increase defence research funding, invite greater private sector participation, turn universities into research institutions, enter into technolgy transfer agreements with any country selling weapons on the market. Seek to internalize technology.

This war will prove to be a turning point for India to become self-sufficient, albeit at the cost of sizeable territory. Per Kautilya, we can always regain our lost territories — provided we are stronger.

Brace yourself. Jai Hind.

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