What Moore Could You Ask For?
Rest In Peace, Moore’s Law. Experts say that we’re approaching the limits of how many silicon transistors we can cram onto our chips. While some modest gains in computing performance can still be achieved through architecture tweaks and smarter algorithms, it’s reasonable to assume that, at least for silicon-based computers, what we have now is about as good as it will ever get.
For what it’s worth, I think what we have is pretty good. I have a veritable super-computer sleeping in my pocket all day, always ready to browse the information superhighway or render games for me to pass the time on a subway ride. My family, friends, and work are never more than a second’s effort away, and because over 50% of the population is carrying their own super-computers with them everywhere they go, breaking news and everyone’s opinion about it gets shared around the globe, instantaneously.
It’s hard to think of what we can’t do with the computing power available to us today. On just my iPad, whose screen has too many pixels for my eyes to comprehend, I can listen to every song ever sung, read every book ever written, watch every movie ever made…and after I’m done, I can compose more music, write more books, and edit more movies on it, too. If I get bored, I can draw, play all kinds of video games, or read what the other 7 billion people on the planet have to say on social media. I personally find all this computing power to be more than enough.
Tech companies, however, do not. Intel, the reigning champion of Moore’s Law, is still hammering away at silicon transistors, even trying to build quantum computers with “ultra-pure” silicon. Nipping at their heels are competitors like NVIDIA, who are developing chips specifically for artificial intelligence. The industries that still have growth potential for all these chip manufacturers include the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, and mobile virtual reality.
The only reason that these industries hold growth potential for computer hardware companies is that the industries were created by computer hardware. The gains in computing power that are needed for these industries to grow are not going to be as tangible as the gains from before, since they will be more for the computer’s benefit than the human’s. It won’t be the same as, “This year’s model has twice the memory capacity as the last one!” Instead, it will be something like, “This year’s model contemplates twice as many alternate realities as the last one!”
Computing performance will keep growing, and without having Moore’s simple law to guide it, we are likely going to enter a lawless, incomprehensible era of technological innovation. It will probably be a boon for the tech publications that have to make sense of it and write articles that anyone can understand…
