The Diary of an Illinois Boston Fan

NFL Previews

In a rather shocking move this offseason, Tampa Bay decided to fire their 2nd year Head Coach Lovie Smith. After improving from the worst record in 2014 to a respectable 6–10 in 2015 with a rookie QB, it just didn’t make any sense. It did, however, seem to follow a new trend of Offensive Coordinators getting more looks at Head Coaching jobs than ever. Ten years ago NFL offensive coordinators, that had never been a head coach before, made up less than 1/3 of head coaching hires, with defensive coordinators and previous head coaches made up most of the remaining two-thirds and coaches from the NCAA rounding out the list. This year, the NFL had 7 head coach openings and 4 of them went to offensive coordinators without any previous NFL head coaching experience. That’s well over half and three of them were promoted from within or had previously worked for that organization in high capacity before.

The widespread belief for new Bucs head coach, Dirk Koetter’s, promotion is that his relationship with franchise QB Jameis Winston was too precious to let slip away by Koetter taking a job elsewhere. Considered a QB whisperer (much like Miami’s Adam Gase), the Bucs pounced on their man quickly before other teams even got a sniff and now they hope that their offensive game can bring the Bucs back to the playoffs.

Expected Offensive Depth Chart:

QB: Jameis Winston

RB: Doug Martin

OL: Donovan Smith, Kevin Pamphile, Joe Hawley, Ali Marpet, DeMar Dotson

TE: Cameron Brate, Luke Stocker

WR: Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson.

Jameis Winston was regarded as the best and most controversial player in the 2015 draft. Big, strong, and compared endlessly to Ben Roethlisberger the rookie QB had to shake off the controversy surrounding his sexual assault allegations (much like Big Ben did, except Roethlisberger was already in the NFL). Being selected first overall put the spotlight on him even more and forced a narrative between him and second overall pick Marcus Mariotta. In their first career games, they went head to head with Mariotta looking much like the flash in the pan highlight reel that Robert Griffin III was. Winston fell short in a drubbing that had many calling (and way overreaching) for Winston to sit down behind incumbent Mike Glennon. He proceeded to burst past all expectations and end the season with 22 touchdowns and 4,042 yards compared to 15 interceptions.

The stigma of being a running quarterback seemed to needlessly follow Winston all season too. While black quarterbacks have traditionally been known to run, that just isn’t Winston’s game. But in today’s world, if you’re not athletic then it’s unlikely you’ll succeed with very few QBs being exceptions. Winston had a very respectable 213 rushing yards with 6 rushing touchdowns. Now he is in his second year and gets the benefit of growing with the coordinator that helped turn Winston NFL ready very quickly, hopefully rewarding the Bucs for their move to hire Koetter. His arm looks stronger already in training camp and he has slimmed down compared to the pictures that surfaced last offseason. The trajectory for second year QBs drafted #1 is a positive one with the likes of Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer all seeing significant production increases in their sophomore campaigns. Outside of Luck and Newton (who already had gaudy numbers as rookies), those other 4 QBs saw at least a 20% increase in passing yards and passing touchdowns in their second full years of starting. It wouldn’t be a shame if Winston fell in ranks with Luck or Newton either.

Winston should expect to elevate his down field throwing abilities with the help of his two big targets in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. After a stellar rookie season in which he compiled 1,051 yards and an insane 12 touchdowns, Mike Evans saw a drastic fall-off in scores last season, earning only a fourth of his rookie campaign. Many players hit the clichéd sophomore slump and you would think the 1200+ yards, in 2015, would show as an improvement for Evans, but he looked extremely lost last season as corners learned how to jam him at the line. This year will be the definitive season for Evans in terms of his future. If he can up his touchdown totals even near his rookie year and keep his consistent yardage, then he should be a future mainstay in the pro bowl. To do that he will need to hone in on his route running. Evans’ biggest strength since coming into the league has been his size. At 6’4" and 231 pounds, Evans looks like a tight end but runs like a wide receiver with his 4.53 speed. Eventually though, as I stated earlier, the physical and quick corners caught on to Evans’ inability to make sharp cuts and proper adjustments when his timing was knocked off. When he was stopped unexpectedly, his recovery time fell almost 50% that of the average player that runs a 40 in his range. It seems to be a mental issue, showing a lack of confidence he has in himself that he needs to correct if he wants to find the end zone more frequently.

It would help if Vincent Jackson could find a way to return to even a semblance of his old form. In 2014, it was easy to understand that the offensive focus on getting Evans the ball would result in a downturn of statistics for Jackson, but even then a 2 touchdown campaign came as a major surprise to everyone. Jackson has been in the league for what will be his 12th season this year and old age may have finally drained Jackson of any productivity and health he had left. He missed 6 games last season and caught only 3 touchdowns with less than 600 yards, his worst as a Buc and worst since his injury shortened 2010 season. Jackson is in a contract year and could fight for one last small pay day if he can turn things around. He’d be best served to start playing in a Hines Ward type role as a possession slot receiver instead of the deep threat he once was. If not, you can expect to see Jackson riding the pine again.

The biggest roster surprise this preseason has been the emergence of of Cameron Brate ahead of Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. ASF was expected to have a break-out season after underwhelming his first two years in the league. Perhaps this was a kick in the pants for the young TE but Tampa will need to sort out their tight end position soon to give Winston a security blanket on check downs.

That is of course, unless that becomes Doug Martin. In his first season, Martin became a fantasy stud by becoming the new Maurice Jones-Drew, combining power and speed with a knack for catching out of the backfield. For the following two seasons, he became a fantasy bust and disappointment for Tampa Bay. He was often getting replaced by the second and third string backs while (surprise!) nursing leg injuries. In his make or break 2015 season, Martin made big time by earning his first first team All-Pro nod. It’s hard to say whether it was just a classic contract season boom or if Martin was finally healthy, but his production will be crucial for the Bucs and Winston to find success next year.

Projected Defensive Depth Chart:

DL: William Gholston, Gerald McCoy, Clinton McDonald, Robert Ayers

LB: Daryl Smith, Kwon Alexander, Lavonte David

CB: Brent Grimes, Alteraun Verner

S: Chris Conte, Brad McDougald

The Buccaneers defense looks so much better on paper than they have in recent years on the field. Another reason why Lovie Smith might have gotten sacked was the lack of improvement by his defenses, the area of his specialty. The defensive line is a mix and match of players that will probably rotate out with their backups aside from Gerald McCoy. McCoy has been one of the best defensive linemen in the entire league since he stepped on an NFL field in 2010. The biggest problem he’s faced with notoriety is the fact he came into the league with another star defensive tackle in Ndamukong Suh.

McCoy has piled up 35.5 sacks in his 6 seasons and notched 3 first team All-Pros from 2012–2014. Despite constant coaching changes over his career, he’s still found ways to be dominant in any system, even last year when he was suffering different torso ailments he put up 8.5 sacks and got a 4th straight pro bowl nod. This year, he looks to be healthy again and we should see somewhere from 10–15 sacks out of him.

Behind McCoy is perhaps the most underrated player in the league — at least to public perception. Lavonte David has a very compelling argument as the best linebacker in the game. Accruing 577 tackles since 2012, he has been a force in the middle of the field. As the team’s defensive signal caller, he has led the Bucs in tackles as well as forced turnovers in his tenure. He has been recognized with one all pro and two pro bowl appearances. His maturation as a playmaker has been refreshing for a team devoid of them. He has ranked 4th in pass coverage amongst linebackers and is a tough run defender. He and McCoy form a formidable one-two punch.

The Bucs’ biggest question mark remains in their secondary, like the rest of the NFC South. 2 seasons ago they signed coveted CB Alteraun Verner away from the Titans in free agency. Since then he’s been nothing but a dissapointment much like Byrd has for the Saints. Beaten for 9 touchdowns in his two seasons in Tampa, the Bucs have set out to improve what should have been a top tier secondary and now Verner is looking at potentially becoming a backup to prized first round pick Vernon Hargreaves and newly acquired Brent Grimes.

Grimes in his own right may become a major headache with his rumored attitude and his wife’s very public social media tirades. Grimes’ wife blasted the Dolphins on Twitter and the Miami owner admitted that she was a major contributing factor in Grimes’ release considering Grimes had a minor fall off on the field. Now he looks to redeem and establish himself as one of the premier corners in the NFL. He has all the potential of becoming a number one cover man again like he was in 2014 when he was rated as the 6th best corner. He will also serve as mentor to Hargreaves and look to send the Bucs to the playoffs with a much needed defensive boost.

Tampa Bay is one of the most intriguing teams in the NFC because their roster is full of star potential as well as major bust potential. Like most teams, the evolution of their young quarterback will be the most likely determining factor in where this organization is come January.