From Tutorial on Active Inference by Oleg Solopchuk

*ise *…possible. How does it connect to active inference and an agent that avoids surprising observations? In fact, **maximizing model evidence is equivalent to minimizing surprise**, which is just a negative log of *p(o)*. If probability is 1 — surprise is 0, probability is 0 — surprise is infinite. Here is surprise as …

From Tutorial on Active Inference by Oleg Solopchuk

…etter our model, the higher will be the probability of the *obse*rved data p(o). It is also called 1*) ‘mod*el evidence’*, since* it quantifies how well is our model pred*icti*…etter our model, the higher will be the probability of the observed data p(o). It is also called 1) ‘model evidence’, since it quantifies how well is our model predicting the real data, 2) ‘marginal likelihood’, beca…