Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played And Games Are Won

Lance Ngo
Lance Ngo
Sep 3, 2018 · 6 min read

“ Counting is easy; measuring value is hard”

Quick Summary

Tobias Moskowitz is an American financial economist at Yale School of Management & Jon Wertheim is a sports journalist and a full time member of Sports Illustrated covering sports such as basketball and tennis. Together they co-authored alongside one another Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played And Games Are Won.

The book provides research and in-depth statistical analysis to debunk common misconceptions on how sport games are won and lost by diving deep into the anatomy of how games are affected by intangible factors that subsequently determine their outcomes.

Loss aversion; Playing to win

Losing hurts twice as bad as winning feels good. We often let the fear of loss overpower rational thought and therefore we typically perform worse just to avoid a potential loss. Psychologists call this loss aversion: the preference of avoiding losses at the expense of acquiring gains. But why would we ever do that? Emotions & Fear. Coaches and players too often get caught up in the moment and forego disciplined and rational decisions for emotional-based ones. With this in mind, it can be observed that players and coaches play it safe to dodge losses rather than being proactive and playing to win.

But what does that look like or feel like? I’ve been both fortunate enough and unfortunate enough to experience both ends of the spectrum through sports. In hindsight, playing not to lose is one of the worst feelings imaginable. You feel as if you are slowly sinking. You get caught up in your own thoughts that completely cloud your rational judgement. You want to control everything but you cant. Everything is extremely calculated but not in a good way. You are reactive and waiting to see what’s next. You are afraid of being vulnerable and feel helpless at times. You’re in your own head. It sucks.

On the opposite front, there is playing to win. There is a special flow and certain cognitive ease about playing to win which I believe stems from being relentless and fearless with the process. You are determined to take it to another level. Setbacks and misfortunes do not affect you. You are constantly inviting the opposition to challenge you because at the end of the day you know that is what will push you to be better. You realize your only goal is to control what you can control and do what you can to the best of your abilities. Win or loss, you have no regrets because you did everything with your best foot forward. I don’t believe that failure or not getting a result you want necessarily warrants regret. I believe that being upset with your process towards your goals is what warrants regret.

Here is where it gets tricky as a spectator. Sometimes players and coaches get scrutinized for playing to win and deviating from the status quo. Sometimes ‘going for it’ in sports seems like an awful decision. The numbers typically say otherwise. Unless you are blessed with clairvoyance, you do your best to make the best decision before you know the outcome (even if it may be failure). Spectators oftentimes only apply surface-level thinking, meaning they look solely at the result and fail to analyze what goes on in between. The irony is if you do the wrong thing and succeed because of good fortune you are a genius. On the flip side, if you did the right thing but failed because of misfortune, you are at fault. What most people see are only the winners and losers, both painting radically different pictures. At the end of the day, do what you can and control what you can control to the best of your abilities. The results will follow. (Hopefully…..)

Counting is easy; measuring value is hard (Duncan vs Howard )

In the 2008–2009 NBA season, Dwight Howard blocked a staggering 232 shots, which led to him earning the title of Defensive Player of the Year. In that same season, Tim Duncan put up 149 blocks which was 83 less blocks than Howard.Counting is easy; measuring value is hard.

A professor of the University of Chicago by the name of John Huizinga did a study on the ‘08–’09 season for Howard and Duncan’s blocked shots. He realized that all blocks were not created equal giving them all differing values. For instance, sometimes you block a shot that ends up going to your teammate and sometimes you block a shot when the opponent is taking a bad last second shot that is unlikely to go in as the shot clock is about to expire. Both are considered blocks, but both have drastically different values. Long story short, Duncan’s 149 blocks were considered more valuable than Howard’s 232 blocks due to the fact that Howard’s blocks were mainly swats that went into the stands in the ending seconds of possession, whereas Duncan often blocked the ball creating a possession for his teammate.

Sports is often too filled with rankings based on simple numbers that typically do not correspond to intrinsic value. Spectators typically don’t truly understand the numbers they see unless they watch the progression of a match,game, and/or career to its entirety. There is a huge difference in stakes and relevance between whether I score a goal when my team is up 4–0 versus a goal I score in pivotal overtime when it is tied . Yet the stat sheet and archives will not make a distinction between them. Stat sheets unfortunately do not accurately distinguish value; rather they just count numbers for us. But it’s more than just a numbers game. It’s about understanding the situation and establishing the complete narrative; without this, the numbers are merely white noise.

How to draft,recruit, and hire (Players & Employees)

In the early 1990’s the Cowboys were able to create a dynasty through the draft. With them going 1–15 in the prior ’89 season, they had to do something different. They exercised one of the most infamous trades in the NFL named the ‘Herschel Walker’ trade which entailed the Cowboy’s trading their BEST player and 4 modest picks for 5 players plus 8 future picks. This trade served as the catalyst to creating the 90’s dynasty for the Cowboys resulting in 3 Super Bowl rings within the decade. It all starts with drafting and recruiting.

I believe recruiting good players and staff, is synonymous on and off the field or court. Of course, results and accolades play a huge factor throughout the hiring and recruiting process, as they should. But, I think a part that coaches and employers commonly overlook is character and up-side. Successful coaches and employers place bets on slope and not on intercepts. Successful coaches and employers try to hire the best executive possible, an executive that is self-driven, self-motivated, and has a growth mind-set and the best interest of the team in mind. Results and technical skills do matter, but I believe up-side and character should take higher precedence in certain situations. Place bets on slope and not on intercepts.

Final thoughts….

Moskowitz & Wertheim methodically and accurately break down the huge misconception and subtle biases of sporting games and how they are won and lost. The book provided a different lens in terms of how it impacted how I view sports and interpret data. Definitely fortuitous timing on my end because my everyday job involves me looking at numbers and analyzing the true value of the numbers and matrices. From a sports fan stand-point, I loved it. I would’ve thoroughly enjoyed the book more if I understood and/or watched baseball. (Handful of chapters are about baseball). Would recommend it to any die-hard sports fan who is interested in the data analysis and the statistic aspect of the game.

Next blog: ‘Zero to One’ by Peter Thiel

Lance Ngo

Written by

Lance Ngo

Analyst @ First Republic Bank, Former Division-1 Athlete @ University of the Pacific, Partner @ Takes from the 4, Sports Fanatic & Gummy Bear Enthusiast