Why Saint John? Part II
In the first part of this three part series, I laid out the criteria that we used to choose where to settle down. In this second part, I’ll share the results of our quest to find the place that matches our needs the most. To recap, we’ve been considering
- ecology: climate, water supply, natural resources, earthquakes
- infrastructure: roads, railroad, airport, port, public transit, education, retail
- society: population age distribution, population growth, city finances, job market
- personal finances: real estate prices, investment opportunities
As a result we were looking at cities near the ocean, with a river, surrounded by arable land not hit by drought. It should be near a highway, with an international airport, and good public transit. Larger than 50,000, an immigration target (this is the Canadian way to grow the population). It should have a higher density walkable city center, key to sustainable growth, and diverse industry to provide job security. And finally, we should be able to buy property: the unit we occupy shouldn’t cost more than $700,000.
Data related to population and income is from the 2021 census. That year was heavily affected by the COVID pandemic, resulting in 10% unemployment, and lower household income all over the country. Also, with inflation and immigration, both population and income numbers might be significantly higher. Real estate prices were fetched from statistics published at the end of 2023, and active listings at the time of writing. Climate information was sourced from https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/ and https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/. Sources of economic activity was Wikipedia, and the cities’ recent reports about economy and future plans.
Oceans
Living on, or very close to the coast was a main theme of the selection criteria. It helps with climate, air quality and commerce. The ocean also provides a source of clean energy: wave, tidal or wind. Canada is bordered by three oceans: the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the Arctic.
The Arctic Ocean was out of the question. Cold, unaccessible, unpopulated.
The next thing was Hudson Bay. It had a rich and violent history, made famous by the series The Frontier, and Hudson Bay stores are still staples of Canadian retail. It was home to many early European settlements. I was hoping to find some interesting contenders. But history has left the Bay behind. The biggest port of the Bay was sold for $10 in 1997, and then shut down, when the railway lines got damaged in 2007. With the economic relevance of fur fading, settlements have shrunk or disappeared. Today, towns of a couple hundred habitants are bordering the bay.
West Coast
So it came down to the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean.
While Canada reaches far north, most of the Western coastline belongs to Alaska and hence the US. Only the southern half of British Columbia has direct access to the ocean. British Columbia’s coastline is defined by scattered islands and deep, narrow bays. Beautiful scenery, almost no people.
Most of the 5.5M people living in BC are concentrated near the southern border. The biggest population center is Greater Vancouver, home to 2.6M. Not many good news coming from Vancouver these days. The untenable drug crisis lead to the controversial decriminalization of small amounts of most narcotics. Without the proper support network provided, it’s often characterized as a disaster. And still, real estate market of the area is hotter than the deadly heat waves. Weather ranges from mild cold to drought and forrest fires. To make matters worse, the area sits on the fracture line of the Pacific Plate and the North American plate, with a history of high magnitude earthquakes. Arable land is scarce.
Victoria, BC
More coastal cities can be found on Vancouver Island, which interestingly is not where Vancouver is. Victoria, the capital city of the region, is home to 91,000 people, with a total of 400,000 living in the metro area. Victoria’s climate bares the marks of coastal climate, with mild winters and mild summers. Winter lows are around -5C, and summer highs around 30C. But highest summer temperatures have been climbing, now hitting the high thirties (record high temperature 37.8C, record low -11C). While on the eastern side of the island, rain is plenty, Victoria, situated on the west side experiences severe drought in the summer. Most of the 600mm yearly precipitation falls in the fall and winter. Victoria has no rivers to speak of, only creeks.
It has an international airport, with domestic and US destinations year round. Unfortunately there aren’t any bridges connecting the island to mainland BC. To reach Vancouver, one has to take a ferry or a boat ride. Obviously, no railway connection either. The port of Victoria handles only small traffic, supplying the island, and providing recreational activities. The University of Victoria has 3,500 students and is highly ranked (#287), offering a wide selection of programs.
Victoria is called “The Garden City”. It has a dense core, spanning ~2km², surrounded by single family homes that flow into the metro area suburbs without any transition. 13% of units are in single family houses, and another 16% in semi detached buildings. Most of the population lives in mid or high rise apartments. Single family homes in the Victoria metro area average 1.3M. Making it out of reach for most Canadians. Three bedroom condo townhouses start at $700,000, with a $500 a month condo fee. The 40% owner occupied rate and high prices suggest high investor activity.
For the high real estate prices, median after-tax income was alarmingly low in the city: $39,200. Most people are being employed in social services, healthcare, education and government administration (37.9%), followed by tourism and commerce (18%). Professional services and technology are trailing with a combined 10.4%. Manufacturing consists almost exclusively of construction. Median age of the population in the city is 42.8, with an average of 45.2. 23% of the population over 65 years, and only 11% younger than 19. Suburbanites are even older, and have just a tad higher income.
Nanaimo, Courtenay, Duncan, BC
Nanaimo is the second largest city of the island with 99,000 people living in the city, and another 20,000 in the surrounding metro area. Nanaimo benefits and suffers from the same climate as Victoria, it has a river, but only a small one.
The city is connected through highway with Victoria. The rail service has been discontinued as the tracks fell to disrepair. It has an airport, with regular flights only to Vancouver and Calgary. It’s home to the main campus of Vancouver Island University. It’s a big university with 7,100 students, but a low ranking (#2544).
The city’s structure is among the worst North America can offer. Barely no city center to speak of, with the geometric center occupied by retail buildings and parking lots. Surrounded by single family homes. 49% of housing units are in single family homes, and an additional 25% in semi detached buildings. 65% of units are owner occupied.
A former coal mining town, the economy is not great. The largest employer now is the provincial government, and the largest industry is forestry and paper. Median after-tax income is $36,800. Median age is 45.2, with 25% of the population above 65, and 18% under 19.
Housing prices are more down to earth, with single family homes going for 570,000, down from a 630,000 high in 2022.
Courtenay and Duncan follow the same pattern, but on a smaller scale.
Newfoundland And Labrador, Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia
From the East coast, we excluded Quebec for language reasons. That still left four provinces, with a total population of 2.4M. The population of Toronto spread over the area of France. There weren’t many cities matching our criteria. Each province could contribute only a single coastal city big enough to qualify. New Brunswick has several cities, but only one on the Ocean. Prince Edwards Island is small altogether. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, have one population center each, with the rest of the people scattered around in loosely connected towns and villages.
St John’s, Newfoundland And Labrador
St John’s is Newfoundland And Labrador’s largest city, with the smaller cities of the province all in it’s greater metro area. It’s located at the eastern point of the island of Newfoundland. Canada’s closest city to Europe, St John’s was already a settlement of the colonizers in 1519. Surrounded by the ocean, the winters are milder than other regions of Canada sitting at the same latitude. Yearly lowest temperatures have been steadily climbing since the 60s, now around -15C, up from the record low temperature of -29C recorded in 1975. Meanwhile, summer highs have been hovering just below 30C, with a record of 33.9C in 1976.
Newfoundland has several big rivers, providing ample electricity to St John’s (96% of Newfoundland and Labrador’s electricity is provided by hydro plants). St John’s sits on several smaller waterways providing it with drinking water. Adapting to the colder climate, agricultural production is mostly turnips and potatoes, with other roots. Greenhouses compliment it with berries and vegetables.
St John’s Memorial University of Newfoundland is decently ranked (#467), the city has a hospital, port, and an international airport. The airport only flies domestic in the winter, but has Caribbean destinations in the summer, with a flight to London (UK, not the fake one). The island is not accessible by road or railroad.
55% of the dwellings are detached houses, and an additional 36% semi detached. 68% of the units are owner occupied. The high ownership ratio suggests a more resilient society. Median after-tax income of $37,600 per recipient is not bad. It starts to look like a pattern that the provincial government is the city’s biggest employer. But the economic powerhouse is the oil industry. Exxon Mobile has it’s Canadian headquarters in St John’s, with many other companies having offices in the city. New Foundland’s rigs off the coast of Saint John’s only produce 5% of all Canada’s oil, but it’s still a considerable source of income and employment for the city. Saint John’s is also the closest city to the Come By Chance Refinery.
The average and median age of the population is 42.1 and 42.4 years respectively. The average household size is 2.3. Low level of investor interest results in lower real estate prices, putting St John’s is among the cheapest cities in Canada. An average home price in the low $300,000s, with older downtown buildings going under $200,000.
St John’s is on a growth trajectory. From a low of the 1990s, when fishing collapsed, the city found support in the oil industry, and is reinventing itself. It is following the Canadian pattern: welcoming international students, and encouraging immigration. The surrounding natural beauty, cute city center and long summer days also lend themselves for tourism.
Charlottetown, Prince Edwards Island
Moving from north to south, the next city is Charlottetown. The Capital of Prince Edwards Island is the smallest on the list with 39,000 habitants. Climate wise Charlottetown is a surprise. Right on the ocean, south from St John’s it still gets very cold. Temperature drops below -20C in January, with highest summer temperatures hovering right above 30C. Precipitation is generous, with rain falling throughout the summer, and snow in the winter. Literally half of the days, something is falling from the sky. To bring all that water to the ocean, three rivers cut the city into four parts.
The city has an international airport, with regular flights to Montreal and Toronto. Fortunately Prince Edwards Island is connected to New Brunswick through the Confederation Bridge. This puts the city at 164km from Moncton, and 325km from Halifax. The 12.9km long bridge has one lane in each direction, no rails. Going to the island is free, but those who want to leave have to pay a toll, $50 for a passenger car. The University of Prince Edward Island is ranked at #1502.
Most of the people are working in provincial administration, healthcare or education, with other industries mostly operating callcenters in the city. The median after-tax income is the lowest here, at $32,800.
43% of the houses are detached, with an additional 15% semi-detached. 45% owner occupied. The average price of a house is $400,000, putting it among the more affordable ones, if it weren’t for the low earning potential in the city.
Saint John, New Brunswick
Both cities named after the saint are among the oldest in the country. While St John’s is one of the oldest European settlements of the continent, Saint John prides itself being the first incorporated city in Canada, in 1785.
Saint John sits on the Saint John river that has a 1,100 m3/s discharge, making it the biggest river of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Although that’s not enough to power the province. New Brunswick relies heavily on nuclear power and fossil fuels. Saint John is an exception, with Saint John Energy operating a growing number of wind farms.
The city’s climate is more continental, with the Bay of Fundy providing relief in the summer. Extreme lows are not uncommon, most years there’s a day or two when the temperature drops to -25C, with record lows of -36.7C in 1946. The highest summer temperature recorded was 34.4C in 1976, but most years staying closer to 30C. The warmer summers allow for a more diverse agriculture, with field crops, apples, cranberries, maple farms, pastures, and similarly to Newfoundland, greenhouses.
Saint John checks all the infrastructure boxes. It’s 114km away from Fredricton, and 152km from Moncton, the other two cities of the province. Quebec City, the closest major population center can also be reached in a day (700km). As recently as 1973, Saint John had a railway station (where now the TD Station stands). The rails remained, now only used by freight trains to transport potash, oil and scrap metal to and from the city. One line connects Saint John to Maine, US. Another line goes to Moncton, through Rothesay and Quispamsis, a missed opportunity for a more efficient commute.
Saint John has a hospital, and a University of New Brunswick campus (#600). The city is low density, with 40% of the dwellings being detached houses, and another 20% being semi-detached. 54% of the units are owner occupied.
Saint John is an industrial city. It has two paper mills, Canada’s largest oil refinery and Canada’s second largest commercial port by volume within it’s city limits. This raises concerns regarding air quality, but measurements are still better than downtown Toronto, and comparable to smaller towns in the GTA. Maybe the almost constantly blowing wind can be thanked for that. It’s main employer surprisingly is not the provincial government, but the Irving family, with businesses ranging from hardware retail to oil refining, half the city is working for them. But Saint John also has service centers for big companies like Xerox, TD and Air Canada. Median after-tax income is still only $33,200 per earner.
Population of Saint John is older and poorer than the similarly named St John’s. The average and median age of the population is 43.3 and 44 years respectively. 20% of the population is above 65, and 19% is below 19.
Saint John is targeting 3% yearly population growth, mostly through immigration, and people coming from other provinces. So far the plan is working. This resulted in house prices more than doubling in the past couple of years. But it’s still an affordable city, with an average house costing around $300,000. Strangely, single family homes in the city center, and close by are cheaper than in nearby sleeping towns like Quispamsis, where average house prices have grown from $300,000 pre pandemic to $550,000 end of 2023.
Halifax, Nova Scotia
Halifax is the capital of Nova Scotia, with 348,000 habitants, the largest city on the list. It’s water front makes other cities jealous. It is also the closest to the Equator, and still north from Toronto. Halifax’s climate doesn’t seem to reflect that. Yearly highest temperatures are regularly hitting 33C, and it can get as low as -25C. To add insult to injury, that’s 40C with Humidex and -35C with windchill. Furthermore, the droughts has been so severe, that desalination is being considered to ease the water shortage (not specifically in Halifax, but Nova Scotia). More and more frequent hurricanes are making landfall in Nova Scotia, often close to Halifax. Changing climate hasn’t been good to Halifax.
Halifax is remote, 260km away from Moncton, the closest city. But compared to other Maritime cities, Halifax is considerably larger, making it a target for shoppers, job seekers, people with special medical needs, seekers of culture or fun, and university students. Halifax has a commercial port, an international airport with destinations all over Canada and the US, and even London. The Dalhousie university is the best on this list(#222). Halifax also has a hospital and multiple clinics and health centers. The city has a rich history: it has developed organically over almost three centuries. The city center mixes historical buildings and skyscrapers. As many North American cities, the city center is surrounded by single family homes. 47% of units are in single family homes, with another 13% in semi detached houses. 57% of dwellings are owner occupied.
Halifax’s economy is diverse, from agriculture and fishing to tech and banking, with heavy and light industries, commerce and shipping in between. Median after-tax income is $36,800, the highest among coastal maritime cities. Compared to other cities, the population is younger, median age is 40.4, with only 17% above the age of 65, and 18% under 19.
Real estate prices are high compared to the region. Average price was $554,000 in 2023. Depending on the neighbourhood and condition, 3 bedroom houses can be found starting around $300,000. Condos cost about the same.
Conclusion
We didn’t consider Greater Vancouver, for all the reasons.
Victoria was eliminated because of the climate, high house prices, and lack of economic activity. Other BC cities were just too small and remote.
St John’s was a strong contender, the climate and the closeness of it to Europe made it a compelling choice. The downside was the isolation, and the over-dependence on the oil industry.
Charlottetown was too small and too remote, with an economy that relied heavily on bureaucracy, and a mediocre university, it didn’t aspire confidence.
Saint John geography checked many boxes: ocean, river, rainfall, city built on rock. On the other hand, the Irving family playing such a big role in it’s economy was reminiscent of current day Hungary. While the ratio of kids to pensioners looked ok, the median age was higher than in other cities, with median income close to the low end of the spectrum.
Halifax as a city was the clear winner. Robust economy, bigger and younger population, a great university. But as a geographic location, it failed on many aspects. Stronger and more frequent hurricanes threatened with increased maintenance / insurance costs. Severe droughts didn’t project a bright future either.
So why Saint John? I’ll dwell into more details in the next entry of the series.
