Lessons from Afghanistan — The graveyard of Empires and the rest of us

***This is the concluding part of the Trilogy on the Taliban and Western influence in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is referred to as the graveyard of Empires for a reason; that land is notoriously difficult to govern, that region has seen the fall of nations and empires more than most other areas put together. The United States pulling out in 2021 is reminiscent of how the Britons learnt their lessons too — the hard way. It was the Greeks, led by Alexander the great before them, the Mongols. The Russians came after the Greeks. Afghanistan has remained the rolling stone that gathers no moss.

So, what lessons are in the graveyard of Empires for the rest of us? How can a nation be so great at frustrating external enemies but cannot keep itself safe? Again, I do not claim to have all of the answers, but I think a few lessons are in order.

Reliance on foreign aid will mess you up

I am reminded of this fact again as the graveyard of empires takes yet another casualty down. Ashraf Ghani, the president of Afghanistan came to power on the premise that he had what it takes to resolve the deep dive that the country was in.

He wrote in his book, Fixing Failed States which he co-authored with Clare Lockhart

At the root of this poverty is a double failure: that of national public policy — or politics — and that of international aid policy. Country leaders time and again have rejected stewardship of the public good in favor of zero-sum political games and accumulation of personal and family wealth. States simply fail both to perform the basic functions that would allow their citizens a life of dignity and opportunity and to fulfill the obligations of statehood internationally. These failures increase intra-country tensions and risks to international peace and stability, which may result in the outbreak of and frequent reversion to conflict. While alleviating some of the symptoms of suffering, the international aid system has failed to address the root causes and unwittingly contributes to the perpetuation of the problem. Instead of becoming (except in rare cases) a catalyst for a country’s journey to stability and prosperity, the aid system has variously assumed the position of the bystander, colluder, fashion setter, provider of substitute services, or dictator of policies.

Yet, he, despite knowing all these relied too heavily on foreign aid and that was his undoing. With the last American boots off the Afghan soil, his army collapsed and he had to make a run for it.

The Afghan story can happen to anyone

A few years ago, even Ghani didn’t believe that the nation would fall back to the Taliban. In a Chatham house address in 2014, he pontificated,

“…If they think the state is about to collapse or anyone feels so, I have good news for you. We are going to be here for another 5,000 years, don’t misjudge us.”

The Taliban didn’t have to wait 500 years.

It brings me to ponder that if other nations experiencing fringes and flashes of violence, especially religious-stoked and ethnically-biased ones do not take decisive steps to stamp out these acts of violence, the Afghanistan story can happen. Yes, it can.

In the collapse of a nation, it doesn’t take anything to go from hero to zero

The collapse of a nation is dangerous, it foments trouble for the citizens as well as the ruling class. This is even more jejune in places like Africa where leaders are about themselves and are bent on looting the state blind. The collapse of a nation will spare no one.

The country’s former Information minister Ahmad Shah Saadat sought refuge in Leipzig and he is now a food delivery guy after he escaped the country a year ago. His replacement was not so lucky, he was killed in cold blood when the Taliban took Kabul.

President Ashraf Ghani is now in the UAE on compassionate grounds, he is lucky, at least, he could flee his country now that it is in the Taliban’s hands. Some other citizens were not so lucky.

We can dream of our finest lives, get the finest meals and all of our heart’s content, if we live in a nation that is on the knife-edge, it only takes the snap of a finger for all of that to vanish into thin air. We must guard the sovereignty of our nation jealously.

Military Intelligence is not a one-way street

In July, the United States intelligence community quipped that once the last boot leaves Afghanistan soil, it would take about six months before the Capital fell into the Taliban hands. They were wrong, as revealed by the quick takeover of the Taliban. I know people who can stake their lives on the veracity of military intelligence, maybe they are right to. Another lesson from the graveyard of empires is that Military intelligence is not a one-way street. Things can occur faster or slower than the timeline, the timeline is just an educated inference in the grand scheme of things.

Extremism will cost any nation more than it bargains for

Pamper it, call it sweet names; call them repentant, say they were children and now they have realized their folly. You can do anything you like to extremism and insurgency but if you don’t stamp it out, it will come back to bite you. That is a simple fact! It is a lesson that other nations should learn, and fast too.

References

https://www.google.com/amp/s/punchng.com/how-ousted-afghanistan-president-gave-ted-talks-wrote-book-on-fixing-failed-states/%3famp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemint.com/news/world/once-afghanistan-minister-syed-ahmad-shah-saadat-now-works-as-pizza-delivery-guy-in-germany/amp-11629886134936.html

Ashraf Ghani and 1 more
Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World
1st Edition
ISBN-13: 978-0195398618, ISBN-10: 0195398610

Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia
Book by Ahmed Rashid

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/bitter-lessons-afghanistan?utm_source=pocket-app&utm_medium=share

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/15/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-kunduz.html?utm_source=pocket-app&utm_medium=share

https://www.democracynow.org/2021/8/19/the_afghanistan_papers_craig_whitlock?utm_source=Democracy+Now%21&utm_campaign=4dcef2f10f-Daily_Digest_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fa2346a853-4dcef2f10f-192399621

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/us-afghanistan-taliban-training/619774/?utm_source=pocket-app&utm_medium=share

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/afghanistan-who-are-the-taliban-what-is-their-history-and-what-do-they-want-for-the-country-12382236