The Squid Game glass bridge game explained with probability

How lucky (or unlucky) were the players in the show?

After reading this you’ll realize just how doomed the first player was, and how unlucky all the players were (source)

Mandatory spoiler alert. If you haven’t seen Squid Game yet, save this article, stop reading, get on Netflix and watch it. If you don’t have Netflix, find someone who does. Once you’re done watching Squid Game, come back and read this article.

For those of you who’ve finished the series, you know about the infamous glass bridge game, which significantly cut down the number of players. The game started with 16 players but ended with only 3. Immediately I wondered if the players did better or worse than expected.

Ignoring any problematic players or former glassmakers, how could we have expected the players to perform?

There are 18 steps and 16 players. At each step, a player must choose between two sheets. One will hold their weight, and the other will break, resulting in their death (source)

The glass bridge game has 16 players and a bridge with 18 steps. Each player must go in a predetermined order. At each step, the player has to choose between two seemingly indistinguishable sheets of glass. One made of tempered glass. Another of regular glass. Tempered glass can hold the weight of two players, whereas regular glass breaks with only one player, sending them down to the abyss below.