State of the Union: The Miami Dolphins

In this second of a 32-part series, I assess the state of the Miami Dolphins, determining that the club will probably struggle to overcome its straight jacket salary cap situation and debilitating EDGE rusher injuries going into the regular season, and will play like a relatively weak 10–7 team during the 2024 regular season.

2023 Season Recap: The Miami Dolphins limped to the finish line last season, going 11–6, good enough for 2nd place in the AFC East, and were ousted with little resistance in the arctic cold of Arrowhead Stadium by the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The Dolphins had well documented struggles in 2023 against playoff caliber opponents, narrowly defeating the Cowboys but losing to all other playoff teams they played. Yet the Dolphins Offense could be prodigious at times, scoring 70 points against the Broncos and racking up blowout wins over several other non-playoff teams. Ironically, the Dolphins biggest concern going into the season was whether QB Tua Tagovailoa could stay healthy after frightening 2022 concussions sidelined him, and he stayed healthy and was highly productive throughout the season. But the Defense started the season without Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey, and suffered numerous injuries up front and on the back end after Ramsey became available.

At the same time, several other Dolphins had excellent years, including WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, rookie RB Devon Achane and backfield mate Raheem Mostert, Center Connor William, Guard Robert Hunt, Safety Jevon Holland and EDGE rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. The Dolphins were the quintessential win-now team in 2023, gambling that they could stay relatively healthy on a star-ridden top-heavy roster. But injuries, a lack of depth, and a critical Week 17 loss to division champion Bills, sent the tropical team on the road in the playoffs to Kansas City in January, sealing the Dolphins fate.

2024 Draft Capital: The Dolphins have the League’s 2nd least amount of draft capital, with the 21st and 55th picks among 6 total picks.

Cap Situation: The Dolphins must now confront a dismal salary cap situation. They are in the range of $29 million over the cap. If anything, things are worse than they sound, with unexpected injuries to stellar players Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips at the EDGE position, creating an additional need at this crucial position that the Team could not have prepared for.

State of the Roster: The Dolphins have needs at TE, Tackle, CB and LB, but have little leverage in the draft or in free agency to be able to address these needs. Miami also brought in a new Defense Coordinator, Anthony Weaver from Baltimore, to replace legendary Defensive mastermind Vic Fangio after a disappointing season on Defense. The players seemed divided about Fangio, and it remains to be seen if they will rally around Weaver.

Having already released CB Xavien Howard in a salary cap related move, the Dolphins must continue to make difficult decisions on several free agents including C Connor Williams, G Robert Hunt, S Brandon Jones and EDGE rusher Andrew Van Ginkel among others. Miami also has several aging stars approaching or on the north side of 30, including Hill, Mostert, Ramsey, and Pro Bowl Tackle Terron Armstead.

2024 Schedule: The Dolphins face a relatively easy opponent win percentage strength of schedule at .488, but two games against division rival the New York Jets with the potential return of future hall of fame QB Aaron Rodgers could prove to be much more difficult propositions than the Jets 2023 record suggests. Miami must stay afloat early in the year while a new Defense Coordinator gets his system in place, and two if its three best EDGE rushers recover from serious injuries. Miami must also develop several promising young players, while getting production from numerous aging veterans on a roster that will probably be revamped somewhat to get under the salary cap.

Pre-Draft Power Ranking: I expect the Dolphins to perform about like a relatively weak 10–7 team during the 2024 regular season, and rate them a 9.7, good enough for 9th best in the League. This actually is a slightly bullish evaluation of Miami’s prospects, with the marketplace rating the Dolphins more like 11th or 12th. Once Miami makes difficult salary cap decisions, it will be a riper time to reassess its 2024 prospects.