A Look Ahead At Power-Play QB’s (Eastern Conference)
Most of the NHL employs some manner of 1–3–1 power-play system where there is a single defender at the top of the formation either distributing the puck down low or shooting from the point. Whether in fantasy hockey or just plain old watch the games for fun hockey, these solitary defenders, especially the great ones have become a precious commodity in building winning teams. Through the pause in March there were collectively over 53 thousand minutes logged on the power-play covering all 31 teams. Across the league defensemen are only seeing about 25% of the available power-play ice, continuing a trend of teams replying on one defensemen per unit rather than two. There are a few lone holdouts like the Columbus Blue Jackets; but with talents like Seth Jones and Zach Werenski it’s plain to see why they can coexist on the same unit. In total, 70 players hit the 200 minute mark on the season, with 17 of those being defensemen.
Despite the fact the NHL is currently on “pause” we can look ahead to the resumption of hockey and at the very least the 2020–2021 season to see which teams may see a change in their trigger man going forward. Let’s break it down by division and have a look at the more interesting situations. Today we will cover the eastern conference.
Atlantic
A few big questions loom in the Atlantic. The first is with the league leading Boston Bruins. Torey Krug will turn 29 in a couple of days and will be a UFA this summer. Krug has been a staple on the Bruins first unit and has played more minutes, 235, than the rest of Boston’s D-corps combined. He also led all NHL blue-liners with over 150 minutes played in P1/60 at 4.58. His 4.07/60 primary assist rate is also the league’s best.
Losing Krug would put a dent in Boston’s lethal power-play. If he were to leave as a UFA, the Bruins would have two options to fill his role. They will turn to Charlie McAvoy or Matt Grzelcyk. Without Krug it would probably be McAvoy who takes over, but don’t be surprised if it’s Grzelcyk. They’ve both played similar minutes over the last three years, with the Bruins being slightly more productive with Grzelcyk. McAvoy does shoot a touch more which could lead to philosophical discussions about how coach Cassidy wants the power-play to operate. Whoever wins the role will see their point totals climb.
In Detroit neither Filip Hronek or Dennis Cholowski were overly productive on the power-play, but when we are talking about the worst team in the league who played much of the season without Anthony Mantha, there is a limit to how productive it could be under the best circumstances. The answer moving into next season should be Filip Hronek, but Cholowski cannibalized too many of his minutes this past season for him to really lock down the job.
Looming on the horizon however is 2019 first round pick Moritz Seider. The 19 year old German scored 22 points in 49 games with Grand Rapids, with 11 of those points coming on the power-play. Three of the Wings defenseman will be UFA’s this summer. If Steve Yzerman accelerates Seider’s timeline, he could see action in Detroit next year, likely with the second power-play unit but by 2021 the job could be his.
In Ottawa the job belongs to Thomas Chabot, whose $8 million dollar extension will kick whenever we drop the puck on next season. Chabot hasn’t been exceedingly productive therefore, don’t count out Erik Brannstrom in the short to medium term. He did struggle trying to make the transition from the AHL to the NHL this season, but Brannstrom has collected 26 power-play points in his last 68 AHL games between Chicago and Belleville. Brannstrom has the ability to run an NHL power-play, it’s just a matter of when. He only turns 21 in the fall. Once he establishes himself as an NHL player, he could challenge Chabot for supremacy in Ottawa.
Lastly for the Atlantic, lets look at Toronto. Tyson Barrie is likely to be a cap casualty, especially since the NHL is losing revenue every day the league is on pause. The projected cap could remain flat heading into next season, which means the job will swing back to Morgan Rielly. This one is pretty cut and dry. Rasmus Sandin should cement himself as coach Sheldon Keefe’s option on the second unit.
Metro
The New Jersey Devils’ power-play had much better expected goal numbers than actual goal numbers. In xGF/60 the Devils ranked 11th in the league at 6.97. In actual GF/60 they were 21st at 6.41. New Jersey had a revolving cast of power-play defenders log ice time this past season. The presumptive pre-season power-play quarterback heading into this year was P.K. Subban; but his on-ice results were less than spectacular. In his 160 minutes, the Devils scored just 11 goals. I’ve long been critical of Subban’s penchant for shooting on the power-play, but he actually shot the puck less than Sami Vatanen and Damon Severson. It’s more likely Subban’s inability to move the puck into dangerous areas of the ice that has led to the decline. Over the last two years Subban only has three primary and 12 total assists in over 320 power-play minutes. Across the board the Devils numbers were abysmal with Subban on the power-play.
So what’s next? With Sami Vatnan traded to Carolina, Subban’s inefficiency and the Devils finding every reason not to put Will Butcher back with the first unit, they really have two options. They can go back to Severson, who’s been fine albeit totally unspectacular, or they could give a long look to Ty Smith.
Ultimately this will be another one of those organizational decisions. How fast do they want to push Smith’s development timeline? He played all of last season with the Spokane Chiefs in the WHL. He also played on Canada’s U20 World Junior team, but only had three assists in seven games. I suspect they will give Smith a long look in camp, but he will likely probably be headed to Binghamton at least to start the season. For 2020, be resigned to the quarterback being Damon Severson once again, but Ty Smith could be in the drivers seat heading into 2021.
Whatever the Islanders are trying to do on the power-play Devon Toews isn’t the answer, at least on the back end. New York’s power-play was one of the worst in the league ranking 26th in actual production and 21st in expected production, and Toews wasn’t doing much to boost the numbers. Regardless of what’s happening on the point, the Isles power-play will continue to run through Mat Barzal for the foreseeable future. The question is, can they find anyone up top to complement his play-making skills on the wing? Ryan Pulock has a cannon of a shot, but the right handed Barzal and the right handed Pulock don’t exactly work well together on the power-play. At the very least the threat of his shot gives their power-play an added dimension.
While Toews and Pulock were splitting time much of the last two years, the team has been grooming 2018 first round pick Noah Dobson for full time action. The Islanders decided to keep Dobson up with the big club rather than send him back to the Q for another season where he has nothing left to prove. He played 34 games and saw about 31 minutes of power-play time before the season got cut short. Pulock and Toews are both RFA’s this summer. Both will be back but neither is the long-term answer to the Islanders power-play. Eventually it will be Dobson, but for the 2020 season expect there to be more of a three way split in ice time distribution with Dobson’s time coming in 2021. If they give him a chance at the full time assignment though, he could run with it.
Moving on to the Rangers; after signing a big contract to come over to the Rangers from Winnipeg, many expected Jacob Trouba to get the lion’s share of power-play time. Early in the season Trouba was playing about 60% of the Rangers power-play minutes, but as the year wore on he lost those minutes mostly to Tony DeAngelo. By seasons end DeAngelo was seeing almost four minutes of ice-time on the power-play.
Even though he arrived with an $8 million dollar price tag, Trouba shouldn’t be getting back his power-play time. The wild card is DeAngelo’s RFA status. Like Toronto, the Rangers are another team with some cap ramifications to consider. DeAngelo will be getting a raise, it’s just a matter of how much. Rookie Adam Fox established himself in his own right this past year and will be on the second unit, giving the Rangers two of the most productive power-play defensemen in the league.
That’s it for the eastern conference. If I didn’t mention a team it’s because there should be no change in status from this season to the next. Check back tomorrow for the western conference outlook.
