Election 2020: The Dash to the Finish
With mail-in ballots already submitted across much of the country, the longest and most expensive presidential race in American history is finally within sight of the finish line. Just one week before Americans go to the voting booth, the Trump re-election campaign continues to hold a firm seven point lead over Democratic candidate Senator Cory Booker in national opinion polling. President Trump, though he has not appeared in public since his congratulatory speech for the GOP’s resounding victory in the 2018 midterms, clings steadily to an overall approval rating of 38%, with another 8% of respondents stating they feel “ambivalent” about his performance in office. Anxious to shore up their parties against a wave of insurgent progressive candidates at the local level, party leaders on both sides have thrust the issue of the President’s health to center stage. Fending off attacks from the Hill, White House insiders insist on the President’s overall good health and spirits, while congressional Democrats have redoubled their efforts to pass a motion forcing a “wellness check.” Senate Majority Leader Thune has stated flatly that Republicans will not allow this motion to pass, cautioning against the damage such a motion would cause for “the dignity of the presidency.”
As the nation enters the nineteenth month of the Iran War, chaos continues to swirl in Washington about American objectives in the still-growing conflict. Since Secretary Mattis’ resignation in March, Congressional Democrats have continued to push for an inquiry into the circumstances of his departure. Rumored to have occurred in protest of proposals by National Security Advisor Gorka to carpet bombing civilian population centers, the absence of Secretary Mattis has given the White House a free hand to expand the war beyond its original goal of destroying the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Over 230,000 American soldiers and marines are currently stationed in the south of Iran, holding the coastline and its major port cities. Though the northern limit of the frontline remains firmly perched in the mountains overlooking Shiraz, Secretary of Defense Bremer has claimed a series of major successes in diminishing the fighting forces of the Islamic Republic. Iranian officials, however, insist on the inevitability of their ultimate victory, and Marshal Soleimani has firmly rejected international calls for his government to engage in negotiations to end the war.
Senator Booker continues to be dogged by his outspoken support for the Trump Administration’s decision to widen the conflict to Yemen and southern Iraq nine months ago, leaving the Booker/Gillibrand campaign vulnerable to criticism from the so-called “California Ticket.” The independent pairing of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and California junior Senator Arnold Schwarzenegger has gained traction by attacking the New Jersey Democrat for his repeated statements in favor of expanding the scope of the war and staunch refusal to institute single-payer healthcare on a national scale. Unconventionally, Senator Schwarzenegger has spent considerable time near the fighting front in Iran visiting American forces through USO tours; in his last visit, the Senator pledged that a Johnson Administration would return Secretary Mattis to his position in the Pentagon, stating “he’ll be back.” Afterwards, the Senator went to the front for a photo-op, where he received a personalized Army Combat Uniform and fired a howitzer at Pasdaran lines for the cameras.
A Quinnipiac poll released last week indicates that most Americans do not care about evidence of Russian tampering in the 2018 midterms, perhaps aided heavily by planted Russian stories about alleged American “interference” in Boris Yeltsin’s 1996 victory. Attempts by Senate Democrats to kickstart a congressional investigation have fallen flat on four separate occasions, though Minority Leader Schumer has promised a new effort to do so if his party retakes the Senate in one week’s time. Polling indicates that the top concern for most Americans is the state of the economy, specifically registering in the new “price of housing” and “quality of life” categories that Quinnipiac has tracked since their 2018 surveys. Pricing of healthcare, costs of education, and worries about the stability of federal programs also rank highly among priorities for American voters.
Turnout projections for this election remain dismal, with perhaps as few as 40% of the voting age population expected to reach a polling booth next Sunday. Democratic insiders are blaming Russian price fixing in the oil market, alleging that the Kremlin is determined to suppress voter participation by overcharging at the pump. Various explanations have been offered for high gasoline prices during the past eighteen months; calls for investigation into the misery are a major item on Congress’ current agenda.
With the opioid crisis now the largest American public health disaster since the Spanish influenza of 1918–1919, federal crackdowns on illegal shipments of naloxone and naltrexone from Canada continue to divert law enforcement resources to the nation’s longest border. Strained by this sudden shortage of needed pharmaceuticals in its own medical system, the Canadian government has offered to extradite an estimated 230 cases of naloxone trafficking to the US court system, nearly all of which could carry decade-long sentences in federal prison. Despite calls by Attorney General Sessions for a redoubled effort to prevent heroin trafficking into the United States, federal agencies seem unable to keep up with the workload already placed on their shoulders. Following the sixty-day government shutdown in 2018, ongoing budget sequesters have prevented needed rounds of hiring and equipment renewal from proceeding. On Friday, a leaked Coast Guard report estimated that the service’s capacity to intercept narcotics shipments from Latin America has been diminished by 30% compared to last year, a worrying statistic at a moment when Venezuelan rebels rely on narcotrafficking for a majority of their financial concerns.
The North Carolina GOP continues to fight the Trump Administration’s 2017 revision of campaign finance laws to allow churches to donate as political actors. Currently the fastest growing state in the Union behind California, North Carolina has experienced an influx of liberal voters to its cities, swelling the coffers of religious-based charter schools with tuition from upper middle class families. In response, an alliance of Methodist, Baptist, and Catholic churches — known locally as the Christian Comfort Community — has become the largest political lobbying group in the state, pushing for universalized medical care and for sweeping aid programs for the homeless and poor. Facing steep losses in heavily Christian communities, state Republicans have erupted into open schism: some electing to make common cause with the self-labelled “communitarian” movement, some electing to fight for emergency redistricting in open court claiming a “socialist suppression of religious liberty.” The case before the Supreme Court will not be concluded before the election on November 3.
The White House has confirmed that Vice President Pence will be attending the groundbreaking ceremony for the President Donald J. Trump Power Reservation in Texas on Saturday. Planned to be the largest power station ever constructed in the United States and combining wind, solar, and nuclear generators on a massive 22,000 acre facility, the Trump Station will divert nearly all of its output to running three huge desalination plants on the Gulf Coast. Built in cooperation with Israeli contractors, this facility will produce 400,000 acre feet of water annually, helping to alleviate the demand pressure in Texas for water from the drought-stricken Colorado and Brazos watersheds. The President has issued one of his signature public letters stating his satisfaction with the project and the honor of having the facility named after him, though Democrats contend that the scheduling and high visibility of the project are underhanded attempts to gain last minute election points.
Following the stunning upset victory of Senator Schwarzenegger during the 2018 midterm elections, a high number of wealthy independent candidates have turned out to run this year. California, Louisiana, Michigan, and Minnesota have each turned out more than half a dozen competitive independent House races, not including Rep. Ellison’s switch to independent status. Many of these candidates carry views highly specific to their district, and while it seems unlikely that they can coalesce into a larger power structure, some projections indicate that a relatively small number of victories will deny a majority in the House to either major party. Current estimates on FiveThirtyEight and RealClear estimate that the major parties combined can afford to lose no more than fifteen of these races to independent candidates and without also losing their shared iron grip over the legislative branch.
The author of this work of fiction can be followed on Twitter at the Penitent Lanyard.
