Madam President
Two women are currently best positioned to shatter the glass ceiling and become America’s first female president — who will it be?
Heading into the 2016 US Presidential campaign, I was very hopeful that a woman could finally ascend to the leadership of the free world. Throughout Western history, very few women have held the positions of both head of state and head of government in the most influential nation globally. Notable exceptions might include the English Queens Mary, Elizabeth I, and Anne, who arguably occupied such a position. Therefore, when Donald Trump was elected over Hillary Clinton, it wasn’t just American women who felt disappointment, but rather anyone who expected that the most powerful person in the world could be a woman.
Fast forward to 2020. Until the election of the Biden-Harris ticket, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was still the highest-ranking female politician that America had ever produced. So when Kamala Harris famously cheered, 'We did it Joe', she could also mean that an important milestone was achieved by her election. Almost immediately, the speculations about the possibility of her ascension to the presidency began.
However, Kamala Harris' momentum didn't last. Following her unsuccessful 2020 primary campaign, the American public had grown quite disillusioned with her and by the time she assumed the role of Vice President, the lasting hopes that she would turn this around were shattered. Despite holding all the merits that she does, almost no one today expects Vice-President Harris to add much to Biden's reelection campaign. In fact, many consider her presence to be a liability to the Democrat's chances of winning in 2024.
This is not to say that Kamala Harris doesn't stand a chance at becoming America's first female president. Additionally to being the highest-ranking female politician in American history, she is also first in line to succeed Biden in case of his death, resignation, incapacitation, or removal from office. All of these possibilities are quite looming expectations of President Biden, considering his advanced age. So Harris remains well positioned.
Yet, if Biden secures reelection — an optimistic scenario in itself — and makes it until the end of his term, Harris’ prospects seem limited. She would likely encounter numerous primary opponents, potentially including other women. One notable contender could be the rising star Gretchen Whitmer, the current Governor of Michigan.
Governor Whitmer's presidential aspirations are not hidden. However, unlike Harris, some might argue that seh has successfully dodged various bullets. Despite enduring sharp criticism from her Republican adversaries, Whitmer’s reputation has not experienced the same levels of fatigue before the public opinion that Biden’s or Harris’s have. Nonetheless, it’s reasonable to assume that once her intent to become the Democratic nominee is formalized, the Republican opposition will likely intensify, potentially taking a toll on her reputation.
This brings us to the key point that I want to adress. What every female Democratic plausible nominee has in common is the fact that the American public, at some point, has succumbed to Republican fear-mongering about them. This pattern holds true for Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nancy Pelosi and will possibly happen to Gretchen Whitmer.
Sure, Hillary's bid in 2016 was not devoid of any major mistakes. However, had it not been for three decades of relentless media criticism by the Republican establishment, she might well have become America’s first female president. No single female politician in a lifetime has recollected so many attributes to place herself at the same level of presidential hopefulness as Hillary Clinton did. In fact, even among male politicians, President Biden is likely the sole American whose pre-election public service resume comes close to matching Hillary’s.
Nevertheless, if we think about it, Republicans are doing nothing but their jobs. In a society as polarised and male-dominated as America, political adversaries will capitalize on anything that hinders the ascent of potential leaders from the opposing field. Hence, whenever the Democratic political establishment comes close to preparing the rising of certain female politicians, in the hopes that they'll someday postulate the presidency, Republican's start to campaign against them.
To emphasise, Democrats employ similar tactics against emerging Republican figures. Immediately after media rumors srtarted to circulate about potential future bids from Ron Desantis and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Democrats launched advertisements to expose their 'folly', extremism and lack of talent. The difference between Democratic and Republican fear-mongering strategies lies in their focus: Democrats often target extremism and the reactionary nature of Right-Wing ideology, whereas Republicans are generally open to landing attacks on women for the sole fact that they are women.
Despite Democratic relentless efforts to push women forward in politics — that are unmatched in the Republican camp — Republican female politicians are less likely to have their reputations assaulted in the same manner. Whenever women run for office on a Republican ticket, they are seldom branded as ‘whiny’ or ‘bossy.’ This is partly because Republicans save it for the general election, but also because Democrats typically refrain from campaigning this way.
The highest-ranking female officials in the Republican field with presidential ambitions — Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Carly Fiorina, Kari Lake, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert — have not been subjected to the same type of campaign attacks as Hillary Clinton and others. This is not to say that they have not faced misogynistic attacks in their political careers, just not in the same institutional level that the Republicans hold against their female opponents. To find a Republican woman who has arguably faced comparable criticism, one would have to go back to Sarah Palin’s candidacy in the 2008 Presidential Campaign.
Considering these facts, we may conclude that maybe the most likely pathway for a woman to win the Presidential General Election is by having her run as a Republican. In this regard, the person who stands out is clearly former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Amongst the Right-Wing base, Haley has successfully portrayed herself as 'feminine, motherly and yet presidential' aligning well with conservative ideals of women.
Haley also has a unique resume that unites executive branch experience and foreign policy expertise. In each primary debate, Haley has showcased a level of policy precision that surpasses her opponents by a lot. In this aspect, Haley emerges as a politician similar in style to Hillary Clinton. Additionally, she avoids much of the Republican sexism, which currently targets mainly Kamala Harris.
In fact, Haley is smartly pushing the narrative that the 2024 campaign is not going to be a Biden-Trump rematch, but rather a Harris-Haley duel. This plays right into one of the main Republican talking points against President Biden: that he may be too old to serve another term. It also underscores the misogynistic nature of conservative attacks on Harris by establishing two contrasting visions for a potential female president: either characterised as feminine and ‘motherly’ or as 'woke' and ‘bossy’.
In conclusion, in the American political landscape of today, only two women seem poised to emerge as the first female President, considering both public service experience and momentum. On the Democratic side, that person is certainly Vice-President Harris, and on the Republican side, that person is Ambassador Haley. The argument here is that Harris is more likely to assume the presidency through the line of succession in the event of a Biden death or resignation. In contrast, Haley is better positioned to win a general election, given that her reputation would likely withstand the levels of misogyny wielded by Democrats, which Republicans use against Harris.
