What awaits the cryptocurrency market in late 2017 — early 2018?
Will Bitcoin achieve $10,000 by the New Year? When will the fixing of profits on Ethereum end? Is there a chance for Ripple to wake from a stupor? What awaits the cryptocurrency market in late 2017 — early 2018? Read about this and many other things in our article.
Within the first 10 months of 2017, the cryptocurrency market has already demonstrated a rapid growth. As of today, its cumulative capitalization has exceeded 160 billion dollars, and by the end of the year it may reach 200 billion. According to Coinmarketcap, there are more than 1100 cryptocurrencies in the world, and considering that there are 2–3 new ICO projects conducted weekly, it is likely that by the beginning of 2018, the lineup will overcome and there will be already 1200 altcoins.
Nevertheless, many investors continue to treat the сryptocurrency market with extreme caution. And the point is not even in its youth and size (by and large, both $160 billion and $200 billion are insignificantly small in the scale of the world economy), but for a lack of understanding of the mechanisms for functioning and principles of existence in this world.
The unsettled legal status of the cryptocurrencies gives investors uncertainty. At the present time, for the vast majority of regulators, cryptocurrencies are either commodities or securities, not cash, from the legal point of view.
The topic for a separate and detailed discussion is the volatility of this market. Only investors with a very stable nervous system can feel themselves quietly in stressful situations, as the daily fluctuations in the rate of tens of percent for this market is a given (even for cryptocurrency with the largest capitalization).
Nevertheless, despite all the worries and fears of investors, the cryptocurrency market continues to grow at very good rates. Over time, representatives of small and medium-sized businesses are becoming more and more interested in it, while considering it as an effective tool for attracting investments on conditions that are not too onerous for themselves.
Of course, the political and economic elites will continue to do everything in their power to stop the growth of the capitalization for the country by the end of 2017. All kinds of loud statements and prohibitive measures will appear regularly, but the effect from them is unlikely to be sustainable. Let us recall how terrible the recent statements of the Central Bank of China on the complete ban of new ICOs were, how the market of cryptocurrencies reacted to them by global decline and how quickly this news was discussed, and the market returned to growth.
This situation is very much trying to extinguish a powerful low-level forest fire by periodically discharging several tons of water from a helicopter — causing some effect, of course, but very soon everything returns to normal. As the US, Singapore, Russia, and China are increasingly resisting cryptocurrencies, an increasing number of zones with favorable crypto-economies, such as the Isle of Man or the canton of Zug in Switzerland, are emerging. And the appearance of such vents is no less, and maybe more active than twisting nuts. Thus, the emergence of new jurisdictions in which both ICO and cryptocurrencies have a clear legal status is the key to sustainable growth of this market, both in the short and medium term.
Of course, it will not be possible to manage it without adjustments caused by various legislative shake-ups, but the effect from them, as we have already said, will be extremely short on the simple basis that no central bank has a decisive influence on the world of electronic money. As for the negative news history, it is in a position to seriously frighten only the most conservative investors, who also bypass the high-risk financial instruments in the traditional market.
Nevertheless, until there is a sufficiently deep synergy of the world of cryptocurrency and fiat money, while they follow parallel courses, approaching, yet then again moving away- the situation at the crypto-exchange markets, continuing the maritime theme, can be compared with Tortuga. The relatively small size of the market de facto made it hostage to speculators, whose actions today account for the behavior of 95% of the world’s largest cryptocurrencies. Just as long as a lazy person doesn’t talk about the fact that each of them is really just an actual soap bubble, and predictions as to when they will collapse amount to tens of thousands.
However, there are scenarios in which the prospect of a global market collapse is minimized. For this, one condition must be fulfilled, by and large: the elements and technologies of cryptology must continue to gradually penetrate into the real sector of the economy, attracting increasing attention and interest from investors. The causal relationship here is extremely simple: the greater the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market, the less influence will be exerted by the speculators, and the reduced volatility will attract even more institutional investors to it.
If we talk about the prospects for specific currencies from the TOP-10, then the picture here is not congeneric. Bitcion’s upcoming trend is not currently threatened by anything: bulls have taken it so much that the curve of quotations can already be entered in the textbooks on stock trading as an ideal example of a game up, where growth periods at almost equal intervals are replaced by short adjustments to fix profits. Thus, no matter how frighteningly high the rate looked, the forecast for the end of the year remains unchanged: $10,000.
Ethereum makes interest to bulls. Now the market has all the signs that the adjustment for this currency has been completed and testing of the levels of 330–350 dollars for 1 Ethereum will begin in the very near future. Good prospects for Bitcoin Cash: in most forecasts for this currency, you can find words about trying to test 535–540 dollars for one coin. With Zcash the situation is much less obvious: it has about the same prerequisites for growth as it does to the fall. The fact that Zash is trading above the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Indicator Cloud is in favor of the first scenario, the intersection of signal lines at level 210, which can be considered a definite signal for sales in favor of the second one.
Investors’ interest in Litecoin, most likely, will continue to fall further. There is a feeling that it will lead to $40- $ 45. Even worse things happen at Ripple. The currency has been in a rut for several weeks, which has already devalued by a third since October 16th. They have something similar to Monero, but the margin of safety of this coin was much more impressive, and the short-term loss of 10% of the value was not so fatal.
