Making Sense Of Saint Mary's Three-Game Losing Streak
I hope this does not become a yearly tradition, that is writing about the early-season struggles of the Saint Mary’s men’s basketball team. My post last season came a little later in the year — December 22nd — just a few days after a listless 65–53 loss against San Diego St.
The Gaels were 10–3 at that point, with all three defeats coming against teams that would earn single-digit seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Much like last season’s squad, the 2022/23 Saint Mary’s team also began the season on a six-game winning streak. A dicey opening game against Oral Roberts led to a 26-point demolition of Vermont and a one-sided victory over North Texas in which SMC held the Mean Green to 33 points.
Then came the first stumble against Washington. The Gaels shot just 20.6% from three as they were powerless against the Huskies' 2–3 zone in a narrow overtime defeat on a neutral court.
In its next contest against New Mexico, Saint Mary’s jumped out to an early 13–2 lead at home, only to watch the Lobos slowly chip away as the first half transpired. SMC went into halftime trailing by two and, despite 20 second-half points from Alex Ducas, could not regain the lead, falling by four to the Mountain West squad.
The showing on Saturday was more promising. The Gaels went toe to toe with the Houston Cougars in Fort Worth, TX — battling the number one team in the nation for 40 minutes before falling by five.
Losses against three KenPom top 100 teams by a combined 13 points is no reason to panic — especially when one of those schools is the top-ranked team in the country — but the Gaels were nearly 10-point favorites in their matchups against Washington and New Mexico.
Saint Mary’s went all of the 2021/22 season without losing back-to-back games and have not lost four in a row since the 2018/19 season (they last lost three straight in 20/21). The good news is that Saint Mary’s next game is a home contest against a Missouri St Bears team that is ranked 138th by KenPom.
The Gaels also rank 332nd in KenPom’s Luck metric and continue to be a top 20 or 30 team in the major metrics, indicators that their underperformance will soon end.
Last season’s article highlighting the Gaels’ offensive struggles was a bit of an overreaction, and this piece might be too, but there are legitimate concerns from this losing streak that should be examined.
Let’s begin by comparing the Gaels’ stats before and during the losing streak. This data selection aptly emphasizes the facets of the game where Saint Mary’s has depreciated the most.
Defensively, a terrible shooting performance by a North Texas team decimated by illness buoys the Gaels’ impressive defensive rating. This should be taken with a grain of salt; omitting the North Texas contest, SMC’s ADJD is equivalent to the mark set during the last three games — which would still be good enough for 12th in the country (and better than the Gaels achieved last season). No drop-off here. Saint Mary’s even overperformed defensively against Washington and Houston relative to their Haslametrics efficiency expectations.
The Gaels’ most acute struggles have been on the offensive end, and the leading culprit is their 318th-ranked free-throw percentage. Saint Mary’s missed 10 free throws in a four-point defeat to New Mexico, but overall, Randy Bennett’s team has sustained the same mediocre free throw shooting percentage across the season.
Saint Mary’s free throw rate (ratio of made free throws to made field goals) increased by 30% from last season, with Alex Ducas and Mitchell Saxen experiencing notable increases. The Gaels are attempting 17.1 free throws per game, up from 12.8 from 21/22. They now need to be comfortable taking so many foul shots.
As with the first half of last season, Saint Mary’s has also struggled with turnovers. After 13 games in 21/22, the the Tommy Kuhse-run offense ranked 188th in turnover rate. They would finish 78th, turning the ball over just 17% of the time on the year. Randy Bennett’s squad has exceeded that number six times already this year — including each of the last four games.
The issue is consistency. SMC limited its giveaways against Hofstra (just seven) and followed it up with four straight games of at least 13 turnovers. Against Houston, Saint Mary’s TO rate of 30.3% was its highest in a game since 2013.
We now move to shooting — both beyond the arc and at the rim. The Gaels are shooting just 53.7 percent on close twos (59.6% last year), ranking 282nd in the nation on near-proximity shot attempts (per Haslametrics). There has been no change in shooting inside the arc recently, but it has been a different story for long-distance attempts.
Through six games, Saint Mary’s had the 13th-best three-point percentage in the country (41.9%). Mahaney has seen his numbers dwindle, shooting south of 30% during this streak, emphasized by a 3–13 showing against Washington. The Gaels shot 20.7% as a team on 29 attempts against the Huskies’ zone while making a respectable 37.5% of their threes against New Mexico and Houston — more proof that one game can cause an overreaction.
The Gaels still have room for improvement, though.
The biggest underachievers during this losing stretch are the backcourt duo of Augustas Marčiulionis and Aidan Mahaney. Through the first six games, both players had solid Box Plus-Minuses (each totaled around 27) and modest NET stats. Since then, Marčiulionis has been an overwhelming negative offensively, while Mahaney’s inconsistency on the defensive end has started to show.
As for ball handling, an area where the Gaels have struggled, the Lithuanian has been the better assister, but the freshman Mahaney has been far better at limiting turnovers.
This brings us to Mitchell Saxen — who I believe is a star in the making. The junior is one of the best rebounders and defenders in the West Coast Conference but is averaging more turnovers than assists this season. He has four assists and nine turnovers during the losing streak while shooting a combined 3/9 at the rim against UNM and Houston.
The ongoing joke between my brother and me is that Saxen looks to pad his stats by missing the first shot, grabbing the offensive rebound, and scoring. The stats back that up.
The Gaels frequently feed the ball to Saxen in the post, but they are among the least efficient squads (among top 60 teams) in scoring from these sets. The junior is shooting just 55.8% on shots at the rim, while the player he replaced — Matthias Tass — made 64.6% of his close twos last year. Saxen hesitates far too often when going to the rim, giving opponents a chance to contest the shot.
As the individual game stats show, the defensive prowess is still there, but the Gaels have lacked robust offensive performances from multiple players in a game. Saxen was the only effective performer versus Washington, while Alex Ducas received little to no help against New Mexico. The game against Houston was an improvement, as Johnson, Ducas, and Mahaney all had strong showings offensively, only for their efforts to be overshadowed by dreadful games from Marčiulionis and Saxen.
I believe the Gaels’ offensive inefficiency returns to the play of the point guards: Marčiulionis and Mahaney. Mahaney is a proficient scorer, but he does little to circulate the ball or facilitate the Gaels’ offense. Marčiulionis has a better sense of how to run Randy Bennett’s sets, but he turns the ball over too often and is an inefficient shooter. The offense looked surprisingly smooth in the second half against Houston when Logan Johnson ran the point. He had five assists while also attacking the hoop aggressively, racking up 17 points.
None of these players is Tommy Kuhse, but they don’t have to be. Each has demonstrated that they bring a particular skillset to the point guard position — and can be successful. What the Gaels now need is consistency. None of these three have demonstrated that steadiness yet. Johnson is the most qualified but has not found his stride this year. Still, LJ gets my vote at the time being, as he can be the model the two younger point guards can learn from. This also allows Mahaney to play off the ball, where he has been the most prolific this year.
Down low, Saxen needs to demonstrate more composure. He could be one of the best Gaels big men in recent memory and has been downright dominant during stretches, but, like the backcourt, he needs more consistency. Saxen has more potential than Matthias Tass, but thus far, he is not the steady presence in the middle that the Estonian was.
As I said before, maybe this piece is an overreaction. But these are the improvements Saint Mary’s has to make to become a team with the potential to make a long run in March.
