Socrates on the offense.

9 Vignettes in three Acts about everyday Life and logical Fallacies

Digital development realities, as told by logic and the errors in our reasoning

Act 1: The setup

Answering an easier question

This is you, asking yourself what the client wants. And not what the clients customers need.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

This is you, talking expertly about something you researched the day before the presentation.


Act 2: The confrontation

Law of small numbers

This is you, asking your friends why they use certain products.

Correlation does not imply causation

This is you, reaching qualitative conclusions from your quantitative research.

Illusion of understanding

This is you, building your product strategy by telling an intricate story about complex consumer behavior, based on two app usage metrics.

Regression to the mean

This is you, ‚fixing‘ various issues in a website that is performing much worse than expected without a clear understanding what is going on, crediting your swift intervention with any performance improvements.


Act 3: Resolution

Hindsight bias

This is you, sending that „I told you so“-mail to all other participants of that strategy meeting, not bothering to check if your other predictions were correct as well.

The Texas sharp-shooter

This is you, defining your metrics after your product launched.

Survivor bias

This is you, trying to learn something from a TED talk about success.


Epilogue

Sources

If you want to read more about logical fallacies, you can get a good summary and various pointers from this wikipedia overview.

The header image is a screenshot from Monty Pythons Philosophers Football.