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№1 LSU takes on №3 Clemson in the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday night in New Orleans. It’s a de facto home game for LSU in a sense, so it’s not a surprise to find that the purple-and-gold Tigers find themselves as 5.5-point favorites entering the showdown at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

But should LSU be favored by nearly a touchdown against the reigning, defending national champions? Are we simply forgetting that Clemson — along with Alabama — has been one of the two most dominant teams of the playoff era?

Well, I’ll get to all of that in a minute. Remember, as I mentioned above, this is the final college football game of the season. We won’t see teenagers hitting each other in anger again until August. That’s seven months away! That means we won’t have the chance to bet on angry teenagers taking out their feelings on one another in a football game for seven months, either!

So, we can’t just bet on the spread. Thankfully, I’m here to help guide us through how to bet the national championship beyond the line. It’s time to go all out because, again … seven months, people. We could have flying cars by then.

Spread: №1 LSU (-5.5) vs. №3 Clemson
If we were to look at the metrics, most of them would tell us to take Clemson and the points in this spot. The two teams, based on their performances this season, are about equal, depending where you look. Some give LSU an edge; others prefer Clemson. None like one significantly more than the other.

But metrics have their limitations. For one, as I said at the start of this story, this is a de facto home game for LSU. Playing in the Superdome is nothing new for the Bayou Bengals. And while Clemson will get the same share of tickets to the game as LSU, we all know it’s going to be a pro-LSU crowd in attendance. That pushes the scales a bit further in LSU’s direction, but that’s not the deciding factor here for me.

It sounds stupid, but the real reason I like LSU here is this: If it’s not a team of destiny, then what ever could be? LSU has been the story of the 2019 college football season. It’s won every award. It’s passed every test. It’s scored every touchdown. I’m tired of being the person who expects the other shoe to drop. I’m no longer waiting for Godot (or is it Godeaux).

Clemson is a fantastic team, and it’s good enough to beat LSU, while nearly nobody else has been this season. It has a great quarterback of its own and plenty of weapons elsewhere. But Clemson doesn’t have the sense of destiny around it this year. It’s been too much of a background character in college football’s story of 2019. I’m taking LSU because, like a “John Wick” movie, sometimes we need to enjoy the ride and not worry about plot holes

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Ed Yong
Mar 25 · 22 min read


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