The Year 2030: ‘The End of the UK’
What happened to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales after the EU referendum? A short piece of fiction predicting an alternative Brexit, written in April 2016.
Disclaimer: The story, characters, and incidents portrayed in this short piece are intended to be fictitious. Identification of real people is made, but only to root the story in our particular political reality. No identification with actual persons, places, buildings, and products should be inferred; this is merely a thought piece, using real names as props. It is not intended to be a criticism of any living person.
This was written in April 2016, three months before the EU referendum. It was not intended as a prediction, although some parts did end up being fairly close to the real-life outcome. This is merely a piece hypothesising the different paths the UK could have taken, if only one of the four nations had wanted to leave.
No politicians were harmed in the making of this story. We hope politicians are never harmed again. Whilst this story portrays political divisions, there is more that unites us than divides us.
June 2016 — The United Kingdom, a Member State of the EU, is made up of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
It’s 23rd June. The exit polls had come out and they knew they’d lost it. The Remain camp would not remain, the UK was leaving the EU.
Things moved surprisingly quickly. Cameron faced calls to resign immediately. Boris is already hiring an extra Press Secretary, he is so sure he will be Prime Minister in a matter of weeks. The Brexit Conservatives are holding meetings to decide between putting forward George Osborne, Theresa May or Michael Gove. Jeremy Hunt desperately wanted it, the ambitious idiot he is, but his reputation is in tatters after the junior doctors’ strike culminated in a full 4 weeks without an operating NHS. Some emergency care was covered, some wasn’t. Many people certainly died. He’s been demoted to Minister for Disabled People. Keeping a low profile has some kind of karmic retribution, as he deals with disadvantaged and often ill people, many who suffered in the NHS Shutdown.
The Labour Party faced yet another Leadership crisis. They all blamed Corbyn for the result. Said no one really believed he liked the EU after all. Corbyn tried to make the best of it, planned to quickly set forward a statement of extreme disappointment, but to accept the result as the democratic will of British people. He put together a team to draft a new constitutional settlement for a post-EU UK. It would end with it rejoining the EU, perhaps 10 years later. He wanted to use it as an opportunity to make the UK a fairer place, to re-write the rulebook and even strengthen equality and human rights legislation.
But the UK did not hold up. It had already suffered from the first Scottish Independence referendum. Their second Independence referendum would be victorious.
The EU result had actually only shown England voting to leave the EU. Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales all voted to stay in. Some by more convincing narratives than others; Ireland saw an 80/20 split to stay in the EU. Wales was only just at 55/45.
The SNP and Plaid Cymru took their opportunity. With Northern Ireland suggesting that the three go it alone, but work together as the Celtic Nations. If England wanted to leave, that was fine. They suggested the three of them trying to rejoin the EU either as individual Member States or as a ‘Celtic Nations’ Member State.
The Labour Party wrangled over this, but it was voted on quickly. An emergency conference was held, put together in less than a week at a sizeable conference centre in Manchester. A motion was drafted and voted on with a 70% majority. Many in the Cabinet were astonished to find such support for independence, which had dramatically risen as a reaction to the result.
“The Labour Party will endeavour to pursue the separation of the UK, following the disappointing result of the EU referendum. England has voted to leave, but the other three nations have not. We call for immediate referendums in the three nation states on the following question:
‘Q: Do you want Wales/Scotland/Northern Ireland to leave the post-EU United Kingdom and become an individual Member State, reapplying for EU membership as soon as possible?’
A: Post-EU UK/Independence”
A campaign developed rapidly.
Corbyn called an urgent summit between the party leaders. Cameron tried to regain control of the situation whilst he slowly gave up hope on a post-EU UK. Frankly, Mr Shankly, he was done. He never expected to win the 2015 election and it had been a matter of time before he gave up. He just wasn’t sure when he could without losing his reputation. He was starting to think he would never retire looking good.
The First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones, played a key part at the summit, as did Leanne Wood who he had just begun a new working relationship before the EU referendum in a coalition agreement. They’d gotten on surprisingly well.
Nicola Sturgeon and David Cameron led the news headlines though. Sturgeon had gotten a second referendum and she’d barely had to ask for it. The momentum from the first Scottish referendum had reverberated throughout the younger generations, who clung on to the vision of forging a nation by itself, without the baggage of England dragging them towards a crueller, less equal society.
Wales was more reluctant, having had the closest EU result, but UK Labour were fully behind the plans. Leanne Wood shone, stating it took longer for them to have the confidence to go it alone. But, with the help of excellent relations with Scotland and Ireland, they could be an independent Wales.
The second referendum in all three countries was held in November 2016. Just as Hillary Clinton became the President of the USA, in the same week, the UK was no more. No more special relationship after all.
December 2016 — The United Kingdom is no more. Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales have become independent countries. England finds itself independent without a vote.
Scotland thrives. It undergoes a radical energy transformation and, with all its laws its own, creates a 75% renewable energy generation country. Through wind, tidal power, solar and biomass, its energy security is intact. It no longer trades so much oil. Nicola Sturgeon remains First Minister for another two terms, before Mhairi Black takes over.
Wales tries to do the same, but takes longer to set up. It’s distracted by all these new tax powers it wasn’t expecting for another decade. Jane Hutt, the Finance Minister, hurriedly sets up an equivalent of HMRC and Revenue Scotland: Revenue Wales or just ‘RW’. Refeniw Cymru (RC) in Welsh, of course. Labour and Plaid Cymru stay in coalition for another term, drafting a new constitutional settlement that embeds its independent values. Tax goes up but public services are, for the first time in a decade, well-funded. There’s an unexpected rise in Welsh speakers.
Northern Ireland manages to hammer together a cross party coalition agreement, in light of powers of defence and foreign affairs coming to them. They forge stronger, historic links with the rest of the Republic of Ireland, seemingly doing better without England trying to help them.
England sees a lot of emigration. But away from England. Many in London, which overwhelming voted to stay in the EU, leave to Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast. The Londoners are surprised to find it less noisy and with cleaner air. After the next election in 2020, the Conservatives — led by Sajid Javid — eventually forge a coalition with UKIP. The Lib Dems and Labour vie for being the third party. The House of Commons and the House of Lords become the English Parliament.
In 2025, the EU receives official notification that the individual countries seeking accession are Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. After a rocky 9 years, the pro-EU referendum campaigners are relieved. But there is no more UK.
January 2025 — Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales apply to become Member States of the EU.
March 2030 — The Celtic Nations re-join the European Union.
The EU 30 Members States are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Wales.
