Antifragile revolves around the idea that people confuse risk of ruin with variations –a simplification that violates a deeper, more rigorous logic of things. It makes the case for risk loving, systematic “convex” tinkering, taking a lot of risks that don’t have tail risks but offer tail profits. Volatile things are not necessarily risky, and the reverse. Jumping from a bench would be good for you and your bones, while falling from the twenty-second floor will never be so. Small injuries will be beneficial, never larger ones. Fearmonging about some class of events is fearmonging; about others it is not. Risk and ruin are different tings.
Let us return to Warren Buffett. He did not make his billions by cost benefit analysis, rather, simply by establishing a high filter, then picking opportunities that pass such threshold. “The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything.” He wrote. Likewise our wiring might be adapted to “say no” to tail risk. For there are zillion ways to make money without taking tail risk. There are zillion ways to solve problems (say feed the world) without complicated technologies that entail fragility and an unknown possibility of tail risks.