Job Automation Pt. 3 — How Will People React?

*In Pt.1 and Pt. 2 of this subject, we looked at the impact that job automation would have on the developing and the developed world.*

Plenty of various Google searches did not bring very much on this subject. Yes, Foxconn replaced 60000 of its workers with robots at one facility. Was there an investigative piece of journalism that inquired into what happened with these people? None was to be found.

For now, one of the best ways to look to look at how people will react to job automation in their field is Uber.

Wait a minute Paul! Uber does not have self-driving cars at the moment!

Yes, I’m aware, but bare with me. What’s important to observe here is how the taxi industry has reacted to this disruption.

After untold years of having a dominating hold on the industry, the taxi industry has been threatened through rise-sharing services like Uber. To say that taxi drivers were upset that their livelihood was threatened would be an understatement. Around the world, we’ve seen the ways that major cities have dealt with it. In some cases, Uber has been welcomed (despite protests by the taxi community), while Uber and other services like Lyft have abandoned cities like Austin Texas.

Ride-sharing services are simply too agile and nimble for taxi companies to compete with. Sure, some have tried to produce their own apps, but after years of mainly poor service (no doubt you’ve had at least one taxi horror story in your lifetime), they simply cannot compete with what ride-sharing services are providing. Some have seen the writings on the wall and have jumped ship to becoming Uber drivers.

So what is one of the main ways taxi companies are dealing with companies like Uber? Lobbying.

Ah, everyone’s favorite means of making sure things go their way! As reported back in mid-2014, the taxi industry has spent $3500 on lobbying for every dollar that ride-sharing services spend on lobbying. Holy. Shit.

In some cases, this has worked. In some major cities, like Austin Texas, ride-sharing has been removed for the meantime. However, the taxi companies days are numbered. They can lobby all they want, but the thing is, ride-sharing services have a far higher level of satisfaction than taxis do.

What’s interesting about looking at this example is that, at the end of the day, companies like Uber are going to be using self-driving cars.

In fact, they’re launching a pilot of this in Pittsburg. So, the Uber drivers that displaced the taxi drivers? Well, they’re all going to be displaced at this rate.

Let’s take a look at some white-collar jobs and make some predictions.

Government Workers.

Currently, the United States employs about 22 million government workers, or about 7% of the population. The average salary is about $51340. Government jobs have a reputation for being safe (try your best to get fired), low stress, and looking up many articles on government workers brings many results of entitlement or laziness.

One of the first images that pops up for government worker

Well, it looks like the American government hopes to “replace millions of US government workers with robots, if comments by a senior technology official is anything to go by.” Interesting!

So, you think government workers are just going to let that happen? That they’ll say goodbye to their nice paycheques and their benefits? No doubt there would be some form of resistance to job automation. Would a new party come into power if they could “promise” that their jobs would be safe from robots? It’s possible.

Accountants

In 2015, there were 1.23 million accountants and auditors and 1.58 million bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks employed in the U.S. The average salary for accountants in the US is $60,978 per year. The probability for job automation? 93.5%. Bob and Debbie from accounting might want to tell their kids to avoid the accounting field. Of course, Bob and Debbie might make sure that lobbying keeps their jobs safe.

Automate all the numbers!

Wall Street

Ah, everyone’s favorite place in the world. Wall Street, of course, has incredible salaries. IT coulbe by 2020 1 in 5 jobs there will be automated. Oh boy, you think people are going to take this lying down? Do you think people with salaries well into six figures (before bonuses) are going to just accept the fact that their jobs will be taken over by robots?

The robots are coming for your jobs Wall Street.

Well, we can re-educate the workforce to focus on skills that will be in demand in a world where job automation eliminates many old ones. Before we cover that, however, we’re going to look at the concept of Universal Basic Income, a subject that has popped up more and more in the talks of job automation.

More on that subject will be for another day.