Just How Big is the Vocal Minority? A Case Study: The Mass Effect 3 Ending Debacle

It was March 2012. It was the roar of gamers heard across the internet.

One of the best-selling and critically acclaimed video game series of the seventh generation of consoles saw the release of Mass Effect 3 in March 2012. The expectations for the finale of the trilogy were through the roof. How will the story end? How will my choices impact the ending? Reviews were extremely positive by critics, although little mention was made of the ending. When players completed the game, it seems like the fanbase was PISSED with the ending. Now, did this ring true for everyone at the time, or was it a vocal minority? Just how big are they?

I’m not going to get into the argument about the ending and the discussion around that. Yes, there were plenty of bloggers, forum posters, and YouTubers who posted incredibly in-depth opinions on why the ending was not just a disappointment, but one of the most disappointing endings ever. Yes, there were plenty of articles written by journalists with a vast majority being critical about gamer entitlement. Eventually, BioWare released an extended cut ending that did address and flesh out some of the issues with the ending, but the underlying themes and structure of the ending were still the same.

Hardcore Mass Effect fans froth at the mouth of this image.

So, how many people were truly angry about the ending?

Before going into that, there are a few things to review first.

1. The 90–9–1 Rule.

Also known as the 1% rule (no, not the one you’re probably thinking of) this rule is defined as the following:

• 90% of users are Lurkers (i.e., read or observe, but don’t contribute).
• 9% of users are Commenters. They edit or rate content but don’t create content of their own.
• 1% of users create content and are Creators.

Is the 90–9–1 Rule for Online Community Engagement Dead? [Data]

If this the case, we can assume that about 10% of those that played Mass Effect 3 were actively discussing the ending online. There is some debate, however if the rule of 1% stills holds up. Some additional reading on the topic:

Community Management: The 90–9–1 Rule is Dead

Where is Everybody? The 90–9–1 Rule Explains Where Your Blog Audience Hides

Let’s also keep the 70–20–10 rule, as proposed by the first article, for later.

The lead writer of Mass Effect 3 stated that only a vocal minority were upset over the ending.

2. Most players don’t finish games.

If you’re online discussing video games, you’ll find this mind-boggling. How could others possibly not do the same? Well, there’s a silent majority of people that you’re unaware of. After looking at some statistics through achievements, it’s concluded that on average, 33% of games will be completed. The numbers for Mass Effect 3 were higher at 42% completion rate, but far lower than Mass Effect 2, which was 56%.

By no means are these numbers a perfect reflection, but let’s roll with it.

3. Mass Effect 3 Sales

Looking at various sources, this is a bit of a tricky one to find. I want to focus on the first month sales when the controversy was still widely discussed.

With these things in mind, let’s start taking a look to see how big this vocal minority can be.

Let’s see how many of them are out there…

As much as I hate to, there will be some assumptions thrown in. When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me right? Anyways…

1.3 Million in sales.

I’m going to ignore piracy numbers. I’m also going to assume 1 purchase = 1 customer, so there were 1.3 million players of Mass Effect 3 in March 2012.

42% Completion Rate

That means of those who purchase the game, 546000 completed the game and saw the ending. To make things easier and more conservative, I’m going to ignore the numbers of people who watched the ending online.

The 1% rule, along with the revised 70–20–10 rule.

If we go by the 1% first, we have the following:

• 491400 (90%) did not go online to comment about the ending. Sure, they may have watched videos or read others thoughts, but they did not contribute their thoughts.
• 5460 (1%) of individuals created content about their thoughts on the ending. They were creating blog posts, posting on forums like Neogaf or Reddit, and created YouTube videos to discuss their thoughts.
• 49140(9%) of individuals commented or added to the conversations created by those that created the content above.

So, in total, 54600 (10%) discussed the ending, and a vast majority were disappointed with it. This number does include those that likely jumped into the conversation but never purchased the game, pirated it, or just watched the ending on YouTube.

If we go by the revised 70–20–10 rule, 54600 created content like videos, blog posts, or forum threads to discuss the ending, 109200 contributed to these videos, blog, or forum discussions, while 382000 either did not view, or passively viewed thoughts on the ending.

I understand that these numbers are off, but it gives us something to work towards in finding the size of the vocal minority.

Of course, as stated, a lot of assumptions were made. How many forum post comments came from trolls that just wanted to trash the game without playing it? Let’s stick with what we have, and since there is more discussion on the 1% rule, I’m going to stick with that one.

In that case, of the 1.3 million sales that came from the first month of Mass Effect 3, 54600 were actively discussing it online. About 43% of the 1.3 million who purchased it in the first month completed the game. So, if these numbers are somewhat in the ballpark of the truth, we can see the vocal minority in action.

So, what did the silent majority think?

It’s hard to say. If they followed in line with the vocal minority, they would hate it, but that number is hard to quantify. I think the best way of seeing the difference is the sales numbers for Dragon Age Inquisition, the next game released by Bioware.

Yes, Dragon Age is a different series, but Bioware is known for its loyal fanbase, so let’s take a look at the first month sales of Dragon Age Inquisition, released over 2 years later in late 2014. Sadly, the quantified sales cannot be found, but the CFO of EA during an earnings call stated that Dragon Age Inquisition was the most successful launch in regards to sales in Bioware’s history. That does sound a bit odd…if it did so well, why could they simply not release the numbers? Anyways if that statement is true, the ending of Mass Effect 3 did not have the impact that the vocal minority thought it did.

If that is the case, why did BioWare release an extended cut of the ending?

Bioware has a dedicated vocal fanbase, and the company has thrown a bone to its fan, with many callbacks to previous titles, and arguably a lot of fan pandering. Well, looking back at the statement that lead writer Mac Walters made about the extended cut, not only did they want to take fan feedback into consideration, but also implied that the team themeselves were not happy with how things turned out and wanted another crack at making things better. While it don’t not magically fix everything, the gesture of making an extended cut was appreciated by the fans.

Do the views of the vocal minority impact the silent majority?

Once again, somewhat difficult to quantify. Yes, they may have viewed YouTube videos, or read blog posts, or read on Reddit, but it’s hard to get data to break down this segment. Anyways, let’s take a look shall we? Here is one of the better videos at the time discussing the ending.

• As of writing on August 12, 2016, this video has 495902 views.
• The video has 5752 comments, which is 1.16% of the total number of views.
• There are 14628 likes, and 344 dislikes. This total number is 3.01% of total number of views.

Ok, once again, this isn’t perfect. While a fairly popular video in regards to the ending debate, the silent majority likely aren’t the ones sitting down to watch it. They’ve moved on. This is likely the hardcore fan base who viewed this video and shared it around.

What about the silent majority who read blog posts, news articles, reddit threads or watched YouTube videos? Was their view changed or influenced by the discussion of the vocal minority? Did they watch for 10 seconds, read for 10 seconds and leave? Did they leave an upvote or a like on the video? It’s hard to say. I’d LOVE to have these numbers in front of me, but that’s a journey that goes so far down a rabbit hole that I’ll end up on Mars.

To conclude…how big is the vocal minority?

I don’t know. It’s hard to get a solid metric. Is the 90–9–1 rule on the right path, or way off the mark? In the case of a product like a video game, it’s hard to get a judge.

However, I will be looking into another case of the vocal minority, one in which it’s easier to see the impact that the vocal minority have on the content that the silent majority views.