Dealing with the deadline, Part I: Shuffling the Cleveland Guardians’ roster

With the All-Star Game, Home Run Derby, and all the fanfare that comes with them in the rearview mirror, it’s time for baseball fans and executives alike to set their sights on the next big event on the season calendar: the trade deadline. For many, this is the real midsummer classic: the annual tradition of teams frantically swapping players in a last-ditch attempt to either improve their roster or strip it bare before the playoffs. But as part of the suspense-building before trades go down, there’s a healthy amount of speculation that must take place.

Over the next week or two, I’ll be cooking up some deadline deals that could help teams achieve their goals, no matter what they might be. I’m kicking things off with a team in desperate need of some reshuffling, the AL Central hopeful Cleveland Guardians.

Guardians and Cardinals swap controllable talent

Guardians receive: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, OF Dylan Carlson

Cardinals receive: RHP Aaron Civale, LHP Logan Allen, INF Gabriel Arias

The Guardians and Cardinals seem like a match made in heaven. The Guardians are looking for bats that can add a little power and patience to an aggressive, contact-first lineup, and they have an abundance of controllable pitching to deal from. The Cardinals are looking to sell off any player of value, hoping to bolster a barren pitching staff for 2024 and beyond.

So the Cardinals make the previously unthinkable decision to trade reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, giving the Guardians the last year and a half and ~$39 million left on his contract. Goldschmidt will boost a Cleveland lineup that has gotten a league-worst 72 wRC+ out of its right-handed hitters, and he’ll add some of that power and patience to a hopeful contender that ranks in the bottom eight in both OBP and SLG. The Guardians will also nab former top prospect Dylan Carlson to upgrade their outfield mix, which has posted a combined 79 wRC+ that puts them above only the Royals for worst in MLB. Carlson hasn’t necessarily performed to expectations, but his plate discipline has improved every season that he’s been in the majors, and he has accrued both an above average barrel rate and fly ball rate this season.

In return, the Cardinals get the young, controllable pitching they’ve been dying to have. Not necessarily frontline starters, but a revitalized Aaron Civale who is allowing a career-low amount of barrels, and rookie Logan Allen who the Guardians simply don’t have room for in their rotation. Allen is not a finished project, but before he was optioned to AAA he showed an ability to generate ground balls and weak contact. His cutter and breaking ball are both above average as-is, and his four-seamer is expected to be the last piece of the puzzle. And to fill Goldschmidt’s spot on the depth chart, Gabriel Arias will head to St. Louis instead of being squeezed off Cleveland’s roster once all of their infield prospects come up.

The Rockies take on some money

Rockies receive: 1B Josh Bell, INF Tyler Freeman, C Cam Gallagher

Guardians receive: C Elias Díaz

The Guardians already have two first basemen on their roster, and in the hypothetical world where Paul Goldschmidt comes to Cleveland, one of Josh Bell or Josh Naylor has to go. Naylor doesn’t make much sense, since he’s the only qualified Guardian aside from José Ramírez with a wRC+ over 100. Bell is in the first year of a two-year, $33 million deal (assuming he accepts his $16.5 million player option), but isn’t impossible to trade. So the Guardians will hook up with the Rockies in a good old-fashioned salary dump, and send Bell to mash in Coors Field.

Bell hasn’t been what the Guardians expected, but he’s not far from being a serviceable player. His 11.7% BB% leads the Guardians, and his 92nd percentile max exit velocity suggests he’s more than capable of re-producing his power numbers from years past. Ultimately, he’s just getting unlucky; Bell’s .270 xBA and .449 xSLG are far cries from his current .230 BA and .381 SLG. The power-friendly environment of Coors Field might be just what the doctor ordered.

To shed Bell’s salary, the Guardians will have to give away utility infielder Tyler Freeman. Freeman has played well in his limited time in Cleveland, but despite being on the roster permanently since May 6, he’s started just 14 games. He’s blocked at 2nd and 3rd by the durable forces of José Ramírez and Andres Giménez, and the Guardians have better long term options at shortstop in the upper minors. So while Freeman’s contact skills and defense will be welcomed in a thin Colorado infield, the Guardians won’t be missing him that much.

For their troubles, the Rockies will give the Guardians catcher Elias Díaz, who was a virtual no-name before having a career year of sorts in 2023. His 91 wRC+ isn’t anything to write home about, but Díaz has been pulling the ball much more this season, which has led to more power. He has a solid arm behind the plate, but not much more in the ways of defensive attributes. He can serve as the right-handed side of the Cleveland catching platoon as Bo Naylor continues to get comfortable. The Guardians will send over the more defensive-minded Cam Gallagher to fill in on Colorado’s roster.