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A few weeks ago, Game of Thrones’ run came to an end with a viewership of nearly 20 million people in the US. Among those viewers, however, there was a group of who was hardly surprised by the outcomes of the series: users of the social forecasting platform Futuur.

Days before the season finale, predictions for 61 key events related to the series were available on Futuur’s mobile app — and they were right in 87% of cases. Given HBO’s show global fame for its unexpected plot twists, how could a mobile app manage to predict its ending So accurately?

Apparently, by combining a qualified crowd of forecasters with a crowd-based approach to predictions. …

Futuur’s surprising performance matched that of traditional platforms, and points to some potential solutions to longstanding prediction market challenges.

Much attention was given to electoral forecasts in the weeks leading to the 2018 US Midterms. Forecasting experts and platforms varied not only when it came to methods and signals taken into account, but also to their accuracy once electoral results were in. This article takes a closer look into three such forecasting services — Futuur, PredictIt and FiveThirtyEight — in order to compare their performance, explore the main differences between their methods, and reveal which factors might be driving the surprising success of the newcomer, Futuur.

Prediction Markets


Lucas Cabral Maciel

Futuur's Communications and Marketing Manager

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