I can appreciate the point that periods of chaos war and unrest begin as a long chain of seemingly disjoint events. However I think you are being arrogant in your certainty about what will and will not lead to war.

I for one believe that the brexit reduces the probability of war in Europe over the long run. I base this on the fact that the EU political structure is not very democratic. MEP’s cannot propose nor repeal legislation. And the executive branch is almost entirely unelected, which from an American prospective is absurd. This deep rooted lack of accountability to the people, will lead to political unrest, uprisings, and dictatorship in the long term.

You may disagree with this point, and obviously we could discuss it with much more nuance and detail. But the reason I bring it up is to illustrate the point that times like these are so confusing, precisely because reasonable, intelligent and empathetic individuals can disagree drastically about what to do next.

I am a person who can “see that open societies, being nice to other people, not being racist, not fighting wars, is a better way to live”. The fact that I disagree with you does not make me a Neanderthal. However so long as you continue to straw man, lecture, and label political opponents, you are impeding real democracy. And thus in my opinion, are just as responsible as anyone else for whatever follows.