Bitcoin Market Analysis: The Blow Off Top

Bitcoin Market Analysis: The Blow Off Top

I have heard many throughout the crypto world make some erroneous claims about the current state of Bitcoin. The most common would have to be misusing the term bear market. Many claim that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since the fall from all time highs. This is a more than questionable claim if not completely incorrect. Why? Let’s take a look at the characteristics of a bear market and how they differ from a market correction, look at blow off tops and why this would be the better way to describe the current bitcoin market, compare the current market to the 2013–2015 bear market, go over a few possible scenarios we could face over the coming months.

Characteristics of Bear Markets:

1. Bear markets have consistent lower highs and lower lows (a downtrend) with occasional periods of consolidation that result in a continuation of said downtrend. This is called redistribution which we will get to later.
2. Bear markets break the uptrend line that carried the price from birth or the end of the last bear market to all time highs on both standard and logarithmic charts. This uptrend line should be drawn from the reversal point of the last downtrend through a minimum of three correction lows — not just as many lows as…