Bitcoin Market Analysis: The Blow Off Top

Bitcoin Market Analysis: The Blow Off Top

Characteristics of Bear Markets:

Depending on where/how you want to measure, the 2013–2015 bear market lasted between 1 and 2 years.
Here the low prior to the full bear market reversal is labeled as the reversal point because this is where accumulation began. More on this later.

What Is A Blow Off Top?

Taint I(TI) and Taint’s Demand Index(TDI) are tools I made. TDI is the standard Demand Index that I’ve altered. TI is a cumulative volume indicator.
A retracement to the support of the last correction could form a spring reversing the trend upwards. Also, a retest at or above the base of the range ($5900–$6400) could fail. This is known as a last point of supply. We could then see a failure of the uptrend log and strong downtrend continuation. Cold storage holders will likely begin dumping. Large investors won’t touch it. This would be a painful scenario for Bitcoin.
I find a failure to break the downtrend of the range to be the most likely bearish scenario, but we could fail at any of these areas.
You can see that Weis Wave sell volume continued to increase rather than decrease over the last week or two, and didn’t allow for a bullish reversal. Though this chart is a few days old, this continues to be the case.
This black line is the slow line of my indicator. It is the 100 day moving average of the colored line. This could be viewed as a double top with the volume spike coming on the first jump up near 9.8k
Using my indicator and drawing the SCLX line of the range from the candle base rather than from the wick, the bounce to 10k would be a failed rally since it follows a SOW. You can also see it makes a higher high on my indicator.
You can see here that in the same way we did during the bear market, we found support at the 50 weekly SMA, had a failed rally with a false breakout, fell down, and broke the 50 SMA.
Chart from above
Ignore the projection times and dates for the curved arrows. These simply show the percentage moves and the targets. From this you can see that for a bullish scenario, I expect either a spring from 5.5k or a period of consolidation that eventually bounces off the uptrend. If we enter into a bear market, I expect that we will either reverse in September or find support for consolidation. However, if this level were to fail, we could be in for quite a big drop even further down. This I don’t expect, but it is possible.
Notice that we still maintain a drop below 80% which is consistent with previous blow off tops.

I am a gaming content creator, ER Nurse, father, musician, woodworker, and cryptocurrency enthusiast. I enjoy philosophy, politics, history, and abstract ideas.

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