So Scott Winship has responded to my response to his response to my response to his article. And he’s said it’ll be his last word on the subject. That’s disappointing because if you follow the actual lines of debate here, we’re really actually getting somewhere. It’d be pity to let things drop when there’s actual progress being made!
I’ll take Scott’s piece by theme:
“Lyman acknowledges he made several errors — some of which he found himself after looking at my data, some of which I subsequently found — but he doesn’t seem especially chastened or chagrined about…
My colleague at AEI, Scott Winship, and I have been having a debate recently about whether there have been meaningful changes in the rate at which women achieve their fertility preferences. This debate is a branch of wider debate between the two of us, which is whether child allowances would be a good thing or not. I think yes, Scott thinks no. The relevance of this debate about preference-completion is simple: if preference-attainment has declined, it could be suggestive of a deteriorating environment for family formation, and thus might help justify a child allowance. If it hasn’t declined, that might…
Living in Hong Kong, it seems like everybody around us had been to Taiwan. So we decided, with a long weekend in October, to finally cross the straits and see what all the buzz was about!
We arrived at the Taoyuan airport (Taiwan’s main airport near Taipei) around 4 PM. Getting through security was a breeze, although getting through the physical infrastructure of the airport was a bit of a squeeze:
The metro picks up directly at the airport, so we took the train into Taipei.
Trip Tip 1: There are two trains from the airport into Taipei: a…
The title on this one may seem weird. You may have read some of our previous travel blogs like, “You Can Roadtrip Across Peru” or “You Can Do An Unforgettable 67 Hours in Viet Nam.” What’s the deal about SIM cards????
Well, anyone who’s ever planned a trip to India knows what the deal is about SIM cards. Let’s say you’re headed to India, and you want to book a train ticket. You will need to make an account on the IRCTC website to book tickets normally. To do that, you, supposedly, need an Indian SIM card. …
Recently, we had a free weekend, and also needed to re-up our visa in Hong Kong as we await our longer term visa being approved. So we looked around online for places with cheap flights. There were a number of options, but many took us to places where there would be active monsoons. But finally, we found some good tickets to Ha Noi from Hong Kong.
So we started planning a weekend in Viet Nam.
We set off for Ha Noi on a 2 hour flight on Jetstar. The seats were tight and uncomfortable… but they were cheap! We had…
The Census Bureau just released its new population estimates. They’ll be in the news. You’ll hear about the fastest and slowest growing places. That’s cool beans.
Let’s talk nerd. What revisions did Census make? Let’s start nationally.
Here’s Census’ revisions to national population each year versus the previous year, expressed as a percent of the previous vintage’s estimate.
As you can see, Census’ revisions this censal period are of a similar magnitude as the last one. And in 2018, they mad some pretty big cuts! They reduced estimated 2017 population by 0.18%! That’s 570,000 people they just poof’d out of…
Back in the spring, we had a chance to visit Lyman’s brother Zach and his wife Liz in Europe. Lyman had work travel to Bremen, Germany at a similar time as they had some flexibility, so we found train tickets to get him from Bremen to Copenhagen, found Ruth some cheap airfares, and made a trip of it! It was cold, it was wet: it was a ton of fun.
Logistics were tricky for this whole trip. Because Lyman was traveling for work, he had to fly in and out of Bremen, Germany, even though the main trip was planned…
UPDATE: I wrote this post after Lane, before Florence. I am now updating it during Michael with an estimate for Florida, immediately below:
You can read the full post below. But for now, here’s my forecast of Florida’s population out to 2070, if Michael hadn’t hit, and now knowing that it did, and about where and how strong. The size of the “hurricane shock” is calibrated based on windspeeds at the county level, and the population share of Florida in the impacted counties.
It’s been a while since I blogged! I’ve been doing lots of writing elsewhere, so the blog has taken a backseat!
But I wanted to take a second to check in on a few cities I’ve written about recent and see how recent population estimates impacted them. Basically, I want to assess how my takes have held up over time. I’ll score on the following basis:
Census released new age and year-specific estimates of the national population today. So let me walk you through them.
Census made minute revisions to the historic age composition of the population. Even in 2016, the year with the largest revisions, the average age of the American resident population was only revised by about 12 hours. That is to say, the average age was revised down by 0.001357 years.
The time trend for the new revisions shows that we continue to age as a nation, however.
Each year, the average age rises by about 65 to 70 days. …