Thinking About Hillary — A Follow-up
Michael Arnovitz

OK, I love Pew and think they’re awesome. However, the whole “political typologies shift with age” is not an accurate conclusion based on data. It is only true to say that TODAY, young people have different political typologies than old people. To correctly conclude that typologies shift at all, you would have to do a survey of the 20–29 age group, then WAIT 10 years until they become 30–39 year olds and then survey them AGAIN and analyze the shift. It may indeed be true that some people start out identifying with one party and shift to another as they age, but you need different data to quantify that shift.

To put it another way, if you looked at Florida at one point in time, you could conclude (incorrectly) that people in Florida are born Hispanic Catholics and die as white Jewish people. You cannot use data collected in one point in time to make a conclusion about a time-based trend.

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