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Hugo Long
Writer of Lyrics from Big Pink

‘Lower 48'

Secession will rise again?

This week I was re — acquainted with a former Florida police officer who is convinced that that the appearance of the greater number of Muslims in the US coincides with Barack Obama’s tenure in the White House, a conspiracy theory” par excellence”, but read on. The broader conversation ranged from family values to the frailty of the US economy, declining moral standards, the Minneapolis and Baton Rouge shootings, but an unexpected a la quiescence on the matter of five dead police officers in Dallas. and despite the lifetime achievements of the individual, four children raised and educated into established careers, as well as a second and third property, significantly, not rental properties (the buy — to — let pension wheeze) but acquired to bring enrichment and adventure to the lives of current and future grandchildren. Clearly this guy is in the salt of the earth category, a good neighbor, a solid citizen with a record of public and community service.

A key misapprehension on the part of my friend, on the Brexit subject, was that waves of Muslim immigrants were showing up in England from Eastern Europe, and that passport controls were absent in the context of free movement of people into the UK. This misinformed view as to the composition of the 330,000 (official figures for 2015) migrants, reveals how effective the Farage Poster was in the misinformation war, and how intertwined the issues of immigration trends, Middle East refugees and Islamic fundamentalism have become, to the detriment of sound policy, logical debate and — crucially — brave political leadership. Unaware that the UK is outside of Schengen and that the bulk of the immigrants that did arrive were not Muslims, my American friend justifies his anecdotal reference to the increase in headscarves in the Publix supermarket on the basis of an additional 330,000 Muslims a year in the UK, and a multiple of this in France and Germany. Certainly the intelligentsia in Darlington concur with his conclusions.

The size of the Muslim-American population has proved difficult to measure because the U.S. Census does not track religious affiliation. Estimates vary widely from 2 million to 7 million. What is clear, however, is that the Muslim-American population has been growing rapidly as a result of immigration, a high birth rate, and conversions. The high prison population in the US is a rich source of conversions. The widely quoted Pew Survey publishes indicative numbers like 3 million, 45% of which comprises the Nation of Islam, the African American caucus, which is generally less visible until social tensions kick in with events similar to Minneapolis and Baton Rouge. A conservative projection of Islamic growth in numbers in the US is probably 250,000. Florida has 42 Mosques and Religious Centers. The UK has 3 million Muslims, of 5% of the population.

“…I don’t respect self-interests of the tiny minority who led the slim majority into the 21st century version of the charge of the light brigade”

Staying in the US, Can Soccer Mom Hillary Clinton shake off Trump? She failed dismally to dispatch Bernie Sanders, who started very late as a campaign organization, had a fraction of Clinton’s campaign funding, and sparse super — delegate support. Her policy statements have been desultory and the platform dragged to the left on many issues. If she is finally elected, her campaign promises regarding corporate greed and labor reforms will be rowed back as quickly as the Brexiteers denounced the efficacy of the NHS’s 350,000 a day.

Trump has consistently shot his credibility full of holes, among thinking listeners — after gaining the presumptive nominee position — yet Clinton cannot put him to the sword. Her response to the Dallas shootings on US Public Television last Friday was dismal — with clearly no preparation for the interview and only hand wringing and generalized babble about an inclusivity and coming together with reference to “our LGBT friends”. Stay on message woman. The routine traffic stops which end in tragedy — and provoke the extremist kick back resulting in five police officers killed in the act of protecting the citizenry’s right to public protest have no connection to bathroom selection. By comparison the, albeit heavily scripted response from Trump was measured and positive, if not really in danger of flirting with inspiration. Conclusion: Clinton will struggle in November, against a pedestrian and unimaginative monotone of undeliverable promises and rhetoric. Division and polarity in the US will become more stark and destructive. I fear that the Stupid White Man vote, together with sufficient GOP ‘mainstreamers’ not holding their nose long enough to vote Hillary, plus further amusement was occasioned last Friday when Loretta Lynch could not get off the stage quickly enough in disowning and down –playing any outcomes from the chance meeting in Phoenix Sky Harbor; another deer in the headlights moment, as Bubba’s SUV trundles on.

Back to Brexit; the Leavers continue to perpetuate the conspiracy theory that the events of the last two weeks are a Remain campaign fabrication. The delusion that Mark Carney is making up the bad news in a darkened basement in Thread Needle Street persists, as the Leave Camp also cling to the cold comfort that the FTSE100 is higher now than on June 25th. Some quick context:

  • According to industry figures for June, car sales dropped for only the second time in more than four years. This was widely seen as a sign that consumers, concerned about the outcome of the referendum vote, were feeling less confident about spending money on big-ticket items. The knock for the usually buoyant car market came after UK factory output made only tentative gains in June. The rise, which followed a slump in the spring, failed to prevent firms shedding more jobs.
  • Siemens, which has just opened a £310m manufacturing hub in Hull that employs 1,000 people, warned new wind power investment plans were on hold. Many other big employers have voiced their concerns about the impact on investment of Britain moving out of the EU.
  • Manufacturing output is still around 8% below its 2008 peak and employs many fewer people than before the financial crash, so it needs all the investment it can get.
  • The core sectors covering aerospace, cars, pharmaceuticals and machine-tool manufacturing remain the UK’s strengths, and the resurgence of activity in the Eurozone this year has seen a steady rise in exports to the UK’s main trading partner.
  • Rob Dobson, senior economist at financial data providers Markit, said the export sector remained tough. Exports fell in May and the low pound may generate more uncertainty, especially in the Eurozone, than it does extra sales.

Anyone who took A level economics can run you quickly through the sections on terms of trade, elasticities of supply and demand and purchasing power parity. This will give you the tool kit to test — and discredit — the nonsensical argument that the Leave campaign used regarding the merits of a weak currency for starters. If that is too hard, ask Andrea. She is good at that stuff — but maybe she missed that class also, while elbowing her way to the opportunity knocks buffet table at the “Conservative First” Home Counties up and comer’s jamboree? The worst PM candidate we never had — a very fortuitous narrow escape, but to have got to that point, it shows the lamentable paucity of the Conservative Party bench.

Finally, a shrill if not heart felt call from the “Lower 48”;

“Trust me, it’s not over because I don’t respect your vote to leave. I don’t respect your motivations or the fact that you hid behind a liar with a flag. I don’t respect the country lurching to the right and I don’t respect self-interests of the tiny minority who led the slim majority into the 21st century version of the charge of the light brigade”

That calls for a big “ouch”. And something that we should develop as a theme for next time.