Man holding a bitcoin in his hand
Man holding a bitcoin in his hand
Could this coin be the answer to our problems?

I had conceived of this article as a Ted talk. Maybe one day, if I’m lucky.

For now, I’m publishing it here. It’s something that I’ve been thinking about for a while and I feel compelled to put it out there. Somebody needs to say it — why not me?

This article is about why bitcoin means so much to the Millennial generation.

In one sense, it’s a defense of bitcoin from people who can’t understand why it has any value or why we would spend our time and money on it.

In another sense, it’s a reflection on Millennials…


Death cross.

Sounds pretty bad, doesn’t it? Bitcoin’s about to do it — within the next week or so.

Death and bitcoin

What’s a death cross?

It’s a trading signal that appears when the 50 daily moving average drops below the 200 daily moving average on a price chart. Like so:


Do you remember April 14, 2021?

On that day, bitcoin’s price hit its all-time high: $65,000.

Today, it’s a lot lower.

Many say the market peaked on April 14 and we’re now in a bear market.

They know better

Obviously, the experts on YouTube and Twitter know the market better than you do.

That’s why they told you prices will always go up, nobody will ever sell, the bull market will destroy all data models, and the supercycle will send “these five altcoins” up 100x “in May.”

As experienced chart analysts, they clearly identified the peak.

Now, so can you.

Find the Top

Below, I put…


Quite a turn of events.

Last month, YouTube told me about all these altcoins ready to boom in May and Twitter said the supercycle was about to begin.

Now YouTube says the market peaked in April and Twitter says we’re in a bear market.

Seems a little excessive to me.

(Yes, at the end of March, I did publish an article titled “Will Bitcoin’s Price Peak at $90,000 in April?” but that article was a thought piece projecting others’ expectations of the market forward to its natural conclusion. Those expectations never materialized.)

I have never bought crypto during a bull market

According to expert analysts, crypto has spent 34…


Photo by Jeff Pierre on Unsplash

In 2019 and 2020, I sometimes wrote two minute’s worth of thoughts on bitcoin — very, very brief commentary. I did my last one exactly one year ago today. Figured I’d throw another one out there. I hope you enjoy it.

In the February monthly issue of Crypto is Easy, I confessed that I’m more tortoise, less hare. Steady persistence rather than bursts of frenetic activity.

In a market full of traders, degens, and moonboys, I’m content to wait for my opportunity to come. I don’t want to find the right time to sell my crypto for more of my…


Oops.

Stock-to-Flow model (S2F) says bitcoin’s price should be approximately $80,000 today. Its “better” version, S2Fx, says bitcoin’s price should be even higher.

Yet, bitcoin’s price is roughly $34,000 as of this post.

Is the model broken?

Variation is the norm

Good people can disagree about whether S2F or S2Fx are valid. That’s above my pay grade.

Whether they’re valid models or not, they certainly allow for a lot of deviations. Bitcoin’s price goes way above and way below predicted prices all the time.

Over its entire history, bitcoin’s price has gone more than 400% higher and 70% lower than the S2F models for months…


Photo by Kamil Pietrzak on Unsplash

With the crypto market in a downturn, this month’s post looks at the main driver of the next leg up: Web 3.0 and the creator economy. Also, a reminder of the macro trends that frame the global financial system.

***This article is reposted from the May issue of Crypto is Easy.***

If you don’t want to read, listen to the podcast version.

A long way to fall

The entire cryptocurrency market has dropped 40% since peaking in April.

Some call this the start of a bear market.

Really?

The total crypto market cap can drop another 50% and not even break the upward trend that…


Few understand this. I'm going to include this in an update to my newsletter subscribers. Thanks for publishing!


Given bitcoin’s high volatility, how do you know whether an upswing marks the peak of the market or just a “local top” before another leg up?

Thanks to the transparency of bitcoin’s blockchain, you can see changes in spending behaviors, money entering and leaving exchanges, gains and losses among bitcoin wallets, and other information about what people do with bitcoin.

Certain patterns emerge when bitcoin nears its market cycle tops, just before bear markets begin, but never any other time.

Three metrics — Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-score, and Realized Cap HODL Waves — can help you see the momentum shift…


Are they really that different?

I’ll get in trouble for this post (par for the course). Please reflect before you comment!

Let me tell you about a certain currency.

It has an infinite supply, its creators constantly print more of it, it can’t be redeemed for anything, and it’s not backed by anything. On top of that, its price floats freely on the global markets, a small number of people own most of its supply, and most people trade it for something else almost as soon as they get it.

You probably use it every day, and if not, your country‘s economy depends on its…

Mark Helfman

Sharing insights about bitcoin, altcoins, blockchain so you can make the most of the cryptocurrency bull market. Not JUST about money. Bio: https://rb.gy/ebxeeu

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